Gold retreats from record highs on profit-taking in thin holiday trade

Gold soared to new record highs on Friday as investors moved into safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions and a softening U.S. dollar, prolonging a strong year-end rally in precious metals.

Spot gold climbed about 1% to $4,522.50 an ounce by 13:40 ET (18:40 GMT), hovering just below the new intraday record high of $4,550.15/oz set earlier in the session.

Gold’s historic surge this year has been extraordinary, with prices up over 70% year to date, putting the metal on course for its best annual performance since 1979. The rally has been fueled by strong safe-haven demand amid ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty, alongside solid institutional and investment inflows.

A much stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP print failed to cool the rally, with precious metals surging after the release instead of fading. Markets appear to be firmly risk-off, reflecting skepticism toward headline data and persistent expectations for rate cuts next year, while escalating geopolitical tensions have kept safe-haven demand elevated amid thin year-end liquidity.

Some of the strong flows into traditional risk-off assets like gold and silver may reflect professional investors, traders and money managers distrusting this week’s upbeat GDP headline, particularly as recent jobs data still point to a moderating labor market at best. The market’s outlook for monetary policy next year continues to price in at least two rate cuts.

CME FedWatch:

Current Target Rate = 3.50 - 3.75

• CME FedWatch January no rate change probabilities have moved higher to 82.3% today from 86.7% on December 23, 2025.
• February no rate change probabilities are at 48.3% today from 54.4% on December 23, 2025.

See the following chart.

Technical analysis perspective

Gold/US Dollar

• Spot gold hit a new all-time high at $4,450 earlier today.

• From a technical perspective, prices would typically retest the prior record breakout zone at $4,381.50–$4,375 before heading higher.

• However, month, quarter, and year-end dynamics could alter the usual pattern.

• The gold/silver ratio is at its highest level since September 2013 and appears stretched.

Gold daily chart

GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) ETF

• GLD hit a new all-time high of 418.45 today before giving back some gains.

• A pullback toward the 403–398 area is possible to firm up support before another leg higher as part of a healthy uptrend.

• The price action appears very stretched.

• In thin holiday trading next week, the ETF may see profit-taking into month, quarter, and year-end.

GLD daily chart

GLD seasonality

Since 2006, GLD has risen an average of 0.7% in December 60% of the time, and 3.6% in January 70% of the time. However, this seasonal pattern has had little influence so far this month.