Gold price holds steady ahead of Fed decision and US economic data

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are trading cautiously as investors await critical U.S. economic data and the upcoming Fed decision. A modest rebound from recent lows failed to spark strong buying interest. Traders remain on edge ahead of the Q2 GDP and core PCE inflation reports. These figures will shape expectations for future rate cuts. Market sentiment is mixed, keeping gold rangebound for now.

Gold market cautious as US GDP and inflation data loom

Gold’s recent price movement reflects market hesitation. The metal rose slightly from its three-week low but failed to attract strong buying interest. This hesitation signals uncertainty ahead of the U.S. Q2 GDP release and the core PCE inflation report. Both figures are critical for shaping the Fed’s next steps. The market currently prices in a 64% chance of a September rate cut. Weak economic data may increase those odds, pressuring the U.S. Dollar and supporting Gold.

On the flip side, stronger data could delay expectations of rate cuts. This would strengthen the Dollar and weigh on Gold. While the Fed is expected to keep rates steady in July, all eyes will be on Powell’s post-meeting comments. Any signs of internal division or political pressure could influence market reactions.

Gold remains sensitive to changes in rate expectations. As a non-yielding asset, it becomes more attractive when rate cuts seem likely. Traders are watching for clues, but they remain reluctant for now. Until clear direction emerges, Gold is likely to stay rangebound. Volatility may rise sharply once a breakout or breakdown confirms a directional bias.

Gold price gains strength near key $3,440 resistance level

The gold chart below shows a strong bullish structure. Since late 2023, the price has followed a stair-step pattern. Each rally has been followed by a consolidation phase, which then leads to a breakout and continuation of the uptrend. This consistent pattern highlights steady upward momentum in the market.

The first key consolidation took place around the $2,400 level. After spending several weeks moving sideways, Gold broke out and surged toward $2,700. Another consolidation phase emerged between $2,700 and $2,900. This range also resulted in a breakout, driving prices beyond the $3,000 mark and confirming the strength of the trend.

In 2025, a third consolidation zone formed just below the $3,400 level. The price has tested this resistance area several times but has not yet confirmed a breakout. These repeated attempts suggest rising momentum. A decisive move above $3,440 would signal further bullish continuation toward $3,600 or higher. However, if Gold fails to hold above the $3,300 support, a deeper pullback may occur. The overall trend remains positive, and traders should watch the $3,440 resistance and $3,300 support levels for directional clues.

Conclusion

Gold prices remain at a crossroads as traders wait for key U.S. economic data and the Fed’s policy signals. Market participants are cautious but alert, watching for any shift in interest rate expectations. The technical chart shows bullish momentum building, yet a breakout has not been confirmed. A move above $3,440 could spark fresh upside, while a drop below $3,300 may trigger a pullback. Until then, Gold is likely to trade within a range, with volatility set to rise once a clear direction emerges.

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