Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to post additional gains with daily close above $1,800

XAU/USD is rising toward key resistance area on Thursday.
USD continues to have a difficult time finding demand.
Focus shifts to Friday's US labour market report.

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

The XAU/USD pair closed in the positive territory on Wednesday and preserved its bullish momentum on Thursday. As of writing, the pair was trading in the upper half of its weekly range, rising 0.25% on the day at $1,791.

The selling pressure surrounding the greenback is allowing XAU/USD to edge higher. Reflecting the broad-based USD weakness, the US Dollar Index is losing 0.25% at 91.03. On the other hand, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield, which lost nearly 4% in the first half of the week, is staging a rebound and limiting gold's gains for the time being.

The data published by the US Department of Labor revealed on Thursday that the weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined to the lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic at 498,000. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 540,000 but failed to help the USD find demand as investors remain on the sidelines ahead of Friday's key jobs report.

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US is expected to increase by 978,000 in April. Furthermore, analysts see the Unemployment Rate edging lower to 5.8% from 6% in March. Market participants will also pay close attention to the Average Hourly Earnings, as stronger-than-expected wage inflation could provide a boost to T-bond yields and force gold to reverse its direction.

Gold technical outlook

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart is inching higher on Thursday. However, gold may need to make a daily close above $1,800, where the 100-day SMA is currently located, in order to attract buyers. Above that level, $1,820 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the January-March downtrend) aligns as the next target ahead of $1,840 (static level).

On the flip side, the near-term outlook could turn bearish if gold violates the 20-day SMA at $1,770. $1,755 (static level) could act as interim support before $1,740 (50-day SMA/Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).

Author

Eren Sengezer

FXStreet

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

AUD/USD flirts with 0.7000, lowest since early August amid bullish USD

AUD/USD hits a fresh low since early August during the Asian session on Friday and looks vulnerable near 0.7000 after breaking below the 200-day SMA overnight. Against the backdrop of the hawkish Fed, a two-day rally in oil prices revives inflation fears and continues to push US bond yields to multi-year highs. Adding to this, geopolitical risks lift the US Dollar to a two-month high, overshadowing RBA rate hike bets and weighing on the pair.

USD/JPY pulls back from three-week high after failing near 159.00

USD/JPY edges lower during the Asian session on Friday, stalling its recent strong move to a three-week high of 159.00 as Japanese Yen bears turn cautious amid intervention fears. Meanwhile, the US Dollar retains a strong bullish undertone as the Fed's hawkish outlook and oil-driven inflation fears continue to push US bond yields to multi-year peaks. Furthermore, the BoJ's dovish rate hike last week might cap JPY and support spot prices.

Gold treads water below $4,300

Gold grabs some buying attention and advances marginally at the end of the week, partially retracing the weekly decline, although it is still navigating below the key $4,300 mark per troy ounce. The fresh selling bias on the Greenback and the modest decline in US Treasury yields appear to support the humble advance in the precious metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin and Ethereum edge lower, XRP extends recovery as macro headwinds weigh

The broader cryptocurrency market is consolidating on Friday, with Bitcoin paring losses slightly above $84,000. Ethereum declines in tandem with BTC. Ripple (XRP), meanwhile, paints a different picture.

Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.

Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.