Euro rallies on back off Trump tariff chaos amid new safe-haven status

The February PMIs of business activity for the Euro Area surprised mildly to the upside last week, suggesting that the bloc’s economy continues to expand at a solid, albeit not exactly gangbusters, pace.

Further evidence that the next change in ECB rates will be a hike came in the form of the fourth-quarter Eurozone negotiated wage survey, which saw wage increases rebound to an annualised rate of almost 3%. While last week's rumours of an early exit for ECB President Lagarde have clouded the rate path, the lack of a clear read on her possible successor has so far limited the fallout in the common currency. 

The tariff news over the weekend has overshadowed all else, as the European Parliament is halting work on the trade treaty with the US until the chaos on the US side is resolved. The initial market reaction has been to buy the euro, further signalling the common currency's consolidation as a safe haven during US policy turmoil.