Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD stuck around $4,830 as uncertainty weighs

XAU/USD Current price: $4,835

• The United States and Iran maintain their respective blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.
• The US maintains a ceasefire; Iran seems unwilling to negotiate.
• XAU/USD consolidates around $4,830 with no clear directional scope.

Spot Gold is little changed on a daily basis, trading around the $4,730 level. Uncertainty took over financial markets after the latest Middle East developments that led to the current stalemate situation.

After multiple back and forths, the United States (US) and Iran decided not to resume negotiations and missed the date in Pakistan. However, US President Trump announced that the US will maintain the ceasefire until Iran “can come up with a unified proposal.” Tehran responded by noting the extension “means nothing,” and that they would respond militarily.

In the meantime, the Strait of Hormuz suffers a double blockage, and headlines early Wednesday indicate Iran is taking control of it, seizing and attacking oil vessels aiming to go by.

Mid-Wednesday, US President Trump said that talks with Iran were “possible” next Friday, but Tasnim news agency denied it and reported Iran has no current plans to negotiate with the US.

Whether the ceasefire extension will hold remains a mystery. Negotiations are in the same category. Market participants struggle to find directional clues; moreover, as most major central banks will meet next week and announce their monetary policy decisions.

One thing is for sure: Crude Oil prices are up, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading at around $ 92 a barrel, its highest since last Friday. Higher oil prices reflect investors’ distrust of a quick resolution of the Middle East war.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Technically, the XAU/USD pair is mildly bearish on a near-term bias as price holds beneath the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $4,739.32, as well as the longer-term 200-period SMA at $4,770.64 and the 20-period SMA at $4,776.89. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers around 44, tilting slightly to the downside, while the Momentum indicator aims marginally lower just below its midline.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 100-period SMA at $4,739.32, with further barriers aligned at the 200-period SMA near $4,770.64 and the 20-period SMA around $4,776.89, forming a dense supply zone that would need to be reclaimed to ease the current bearish tone. With no nearby indicator-based support levels below the market, any fresh decline would leave XAU/USD exposed to probing prior price lows around $4,668 until buyers show a stronger reaction.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD retains a constructive near-term bias as spot holds above the 20-day SMA at $4,693.12 and the 100-day SMA at $4,731.60, with the latter sitting almost at the current price and acting as a pivotal layer of trend support. The longer-term 200-day SMA, down at $4,236.91, reinforces the broader uptrend, while the 14-day RSI around 48 and the Momentum indicator also in neutral readings suggest that bullish pressure is moderating rather than accelerating.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)