Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD remains poised to clear $2,100 amid bullish technicals
- Gold price extends a five-day uptrend to hit a new three-week high above $2,085 early Thursday.
- The US Dollar keeps the red amid risk appetite, shrugs off a rebound in the US Treasury bond yields.
- Gold price looks to take out $2,100 as the daily technical setup remains in favor of buyers.
Gold price is sitting at its highest level in three weeks above $2,085 early Thursday, extending its winning momentum into the fifth day in a row. Attention turns toward the mid-tier US Jobless Claims data and the bond auction for further upside in Gold price.
Gold price keeps pushing higher, as dovish Fed bets support
Gold price is finding additional support, as the US Dollar meets fresh supply from a risk-on rally in the Asian stock markets. Investors cheer expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) next year and pile up on global stocks. Further, China’s pledge to promote stable growth by expanding domestic demand combined with the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) liquidity injections boost risk appetite at the expense of the US Dollar.
Therefore. Gold price continues its upward trajectory toward the $2,100 barrier in Asian trading on Thursday, ignoring the modest rebound in the US Treasury bond yields. At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index is flirting with five-month lows near 100.75 while the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yields bounce off multi-month troughs to trade at 3.81%, up 0.50% on the day.
On Wednesday, full markets returned following an extended Christmas break and cheered Tuesday’s strong US two-year sale and the latest positive auction of $58 billion in five-year notes, which triggered a fresh leg lower in the US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar. The renewed US Dollar sell-off propelled Gold price to post a record close above the $2,070 level on Wednesday.
Markets continued to ramp up demand for stocks and bonds, in anticipation of the potential Fed rate cuts next year, weighing heavily on the US Treasury bond yields.
All eyes now turn toward the mid-tier US Jobless Claims data and the seven-year bond auction due later this Wednesday for a fresh upside boost in Gold price. Meanwhile, Gold traders will also remain cautious of any exaggerated moves, courtesy of the pre-New Year thin liquidity conditions.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
From a short-term technical perspective, Gold price remains exposed to the upside amid bullish indicators.
Gold price broke above the rising trendline resistance at $2,080 but needs a daily closing above the latter to extend the uptrend toward the all-time high of $2,144. Gold buyers will face stiff resistance at the $2,100 and $2,120 levels beforehand.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is pointing north above the midline, adding credence to the latest uptick.
Any pullback in Gold price could meet initial demand at the previous day’s low of $2,061, below which the correction could extend toward the $2,050 round figure.
The last line of defense for Gold buyers is envisioned at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,035.
Gold FAQs
Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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Author
Dhwani Mehta
FXStreet
Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.
