|

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD regains $2,900 amid easing fears

XAU/USD Current price: $2,903.92

  • The United States Consumer Price Index was higher than anticipated in January.
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress, poured cold water on market concerns.
  • XAU/USD recovered roughly $40 from its daily low, showing buyers are happy adding on dips.

Spot Gold recovered from an intraday low of $2,863.61 and trades above the $2,900 mark in the mid-American session. Financial markets are quite volatile in the second half of the day after multiple key headlines coming from the United States (US).

On the one hand, the country released the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which rose by 3.0% in January compared to a year earlier.  The core annual reading printed at 3.3% vs. the expected 3.1%, while, on a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.5%, higher than the 0.4% posted in December. All figures were above expectations, immediately triggering demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) amid speculation the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will further delay any potential interest rate cut.

The XAU/USD pair fell to the aforementioned low, yet the slide was limited amid Gold’s safe-haven condition. The pair recovered as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress. Powell tried to put things back in balance by noting that the economy is “close, but not there” on inflation. Additionally, he repeated that the central bank makes its decisions based on the economy’s performance. Finally, he said that policymakers want to keep the monetary policy restrictive for now while acknowledging that it is possible officials will have to move the policy rate on tariffs.

Somehow, Wall Street managed to reverse part of its early losses with Powell, putting pressure on the USD and helping XAU/USD recover its bullish pose.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows overbought conditions persist, yet there are no clear signs of an upcoming slide. Technical indicators have turned flat within extreme levels and even aim marginally higher. At the same time, XAU/USD develops far above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading firmly north at around $2,798.00 while far above the 100 and 200 SMAs.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, Gold is bullish. XAU/USD is advancing, breaking above a bullish 20 SMA, while the intraday dip has stalled far above a bullish 100 SMA. The Momentum indicator pared it slide around its 100 line but holds around it. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has already changed course and aims north at around 59, supporting another leg north.

Support levels: 2,883.50 2,872.30 2,855.45

Resistance levels: 2,911.60 2,925.00 2,940.00

  

Author

Valeria Bednarik

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

More from Valeria Bednarik
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 on fresh USD supply

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar retreats from 17-month highs as traders take profits off the table ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar draws support from reviving expectations of a November interest rate hike amid elevated global yields and inflation risks.


USD/JPY struggles near 158.00 as USD retreats ahead of NFP

USD/JPY is struggling for fresh impetus near 158.00, moving away from the top end of its weekly range in the Asian session on Friday, after hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI and amid a broad US Dollar retreat. Traders reposition themselves ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls.

Gold fades the earlier optimism; back below $4,200

Gold could not sustain the post-NFP bull run past the $4,200 mark per troy ounce, receding toward the $4,180 region at the end of the week. The precious metal’s inconclusive price action comes amid fresh selling pressure hurting the US Dollar as investors assess the latest NFP data.

Week ahead: Fed minutes in the spotlight amid bond market rout
The first full week of October and the final quarter of the year get underway with little fanfare in terms of the economic agenda. But far from being short on excitement, the coming week will test market nerves, as government bond yields continue to soar on growing worries that the energy crisis will only get worse, fuelling inflation.
CFTC Report: Speculators turn more defensive as Oil exposure falls
The week in one sentence: During the week leading up to September 29, long positions in crude oil were significantly reduced, while short positions in the Canadian Dollar went up. In addition, the positioning of the Australian Dollar and the Japanese Yen declined, while Coffee buying stood out against a more general background of defensiveness.
The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.