Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD record rally extends beyond $2,900

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $2,902.98

US President Donald Trump gears up for another round of tariffs.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's testimony and US inflation coming up next.
XAU/USD may correct gains in the near term, but market players seek higher highs.

Risk aversion keeps fueling Gold demand, with the bright metal conquering the $2,900 threshold on Monday. Demand for safety was boosted by comments from United States (US) President Donald Trump, who pledged to impose more tariffs over the weekend.

Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, President Trump said on Sunday he would introduce new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports into the US while adding that he would soon announce reciprocal tariffs to all countries that levy US goods and services. XAU/USD extended gains towards $2,911.21 during American trading hours, hovering nearby at the time of writing.

Demand for safe-haven assets persists despite the positive tone of equities. The US Dollar (USD) trades with a firmer tone against its high-yielding rivals, while demand for Gold and the Japanese Yen (JPY) exceeds that of the Greenback. Meanwhile, Wall Street holds on to modest intraday gains, although caution prevails as investors await fresh Trump’s headlines.

The focus this week will remain on the US. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will testify before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, with market players looking for fresh clues on the future of monetary policy. Additionally, the US will publish the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, with the core annual reading foreseen at 3.1%, easing from the 3.2% posted in December.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, XAU/USD is poised to extend its rally. The daily chart shows it retreated from its fresh peak and trades around the $2,900 mark. Technical indicators maintain their upward slopes well into overbought territory without signs of upward exhaustion. Furthermore, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) accelerated north well above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs while developing roughly $140.00 below the current level. A corrective decline is not out of the picture, yet higher highs lay ahead.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is bullish, although a corrective decline is not out of the picture. The Momentum indicator heads firmly north, well above its 100 line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidates at around 73. Moving averages, in the meantime, head firmly north, far below the current level, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing intraday support at $2,870.10.

Support levels: 2,886.60 2,872.30 2,855.45

Resistance levels: 2,911.60 2,925.00 2,940.00

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD turns lower toward 0.7000 after mixed Australian jobs data

AUD/USD is losing ground toward 0.7000 in the Asian session on Thursday, following the release of the Australian August jobs report, which showed that the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.6% versus 4.5% expected, while Employment Change beat estimates, arriving at 39.5K. Traders also remain unnerved ahead of the critical Trump-Xi meeting.

USD/JPY keeps the red near 158.00 as Japanese Yen firms up

USD/JPY retreats from three-week highs and holds losses near 158.00 in the Asian session on Thursday. Surging Japanese bond yields lift the Yen amid looming intervention risks, while the US Dollar preserves overnight gains to a two-month high amid hawkish Fed bets and elevated US bond yields.

Gold consolidates below $4,300, awaits Trump-Xi meeting

Gold struggles below $4,300 in the Asian session on Thursday and seems vulnerable amid a bearish fundamental backdrop. US bond yields rallied to fresh multi-year highs amid rising Fed rate-hike bets, helping the US Dollar preserve Wednesday’s strong gains to a nearly two-month high and undermining the non-yielding bullion. Bears, however, seem hesitant ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting.

Bitcoin rallies above major cost bases as bulls eye $96K resistance

Bitcoin (BTC) has moved above several cost bases, strengthening the structure of its recent recovery as selling pressure remains relatively subdued. In a report on Wednesday, Glassnode stated that Bitcoin’s latest move is notable because the top crypto has recovered above the True Market Mean at roughly $77,000 and the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis.

Oil price rise weighs on stocks

Rising oil prices and higher yields have thrown the equity rally off track. After the risk-on start to the week renewed gains for oil prices and yields have weighed on indices.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.