Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD nears $5,000 on lingering political woes

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $4,955

A partial US government shutdown interrupts the release of employment data.
US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with India, reducing tariffs.
XAU/USD aims to resume its haven rally, $5,000 under assault.

Spot Gold managed to recover ground after falling sharply for two days in a row, trading well above the $4,900 mark in the American session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) lost its recent momentum, although losses against other currencies are limited.

Market participants paused their early optimism amid fresh waves of uncertainty. On the one hand, the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Monday that it will not be publishing the usual employment reports given the US government's partial shutdown. That means the BLS skipped publishing the JOLTS Job Openings report and will not release weekly employment figures or the January Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

On the other hand, trade tensions returned. The European Union signed a trade deal with India last week, prompting US President Donald Trump to announce a trade agreement with the Asian country. The new deal includes reduced tariffs from 25% to 18%, and India's oil purchases to both the US and Venezuela, the latter in the hands of Trump.

Finally, market participants seem to be taking back bets that the upcoming US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, Kevin Warsh, will be utterly hawkish, as Trump demands. Indeed, Warsh has advocated for lower rates in the last few months, arguing that tech progress will boost growth without triggering worrisome inflation.

Ultimately, concerns remain the same, resulting in increased haven demand.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the 4-hour chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it recovered above all its moving averages, currently struggling around a 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), the latter at $4,922. The 100-period and 200-period SMAs head modestly higher at $4,869 and $4,649, respectively. At the same time, the Momentum indicator resumed its advance but remains right below its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers at around 50, neutral, not enough to confirm another leg north.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD seems poised to extend its current recovery. The pair surged above all its moving averages, with the 20-day SMA climbing above the longer ones and currently at $4,802.57. At the same time, the technical indicators have bounced from around their midlines, with the RSI indicator currently at 56 and aiming north. A sustained advance pushing Gold through $5,000 is likely to anticipate a steeper upside extension.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD rises to 0.6950 as USD slips on Fed's Warsh

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the bounce toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. Fed Chair Warsh's comments reinforce the selling pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the pair to stretch higher. Warsh said that he remains committed to delivering price stability without giving away anything on future interest rate path.

USD/JPY falls in symc with USD, gives up 158.00 after Warsh's speech

USD/JPY has come under fresh selling pressure and gives up 158.00 in the Asian session on Friday amid the emergence of fresh US Dollar selling. Fed Chair Warsh's non-committal commentary on the future tightening path, weighs on the US Dollar and the pair.

Gold extends gains nearing $4,200 as US Dollar struggles

Gold heads north for the second consecutive day, trading near $4,180, with bulls aiming for the $4,230 area, the top of October’s trading range. Precious metals have been boosted by lower US Treasury yields and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials this week, which have undermined speculative support for the Greenback.

Busy week for Ripple’s RLUSD: What changes for stablecoin holders?

Ripple’s RLUSD is gaining ground across institutional finance, with a major bank launching custody services, a new wallet integration making it easier for developers to build payments and agentic experiences on the network, and a brokerage platform planning to use the stablecoin for settlement.

Hot inflation, falling yields: A new test for global markets

Global markets are confronting a difficult combination: renewed inflation pressure, expensive capital and growing scrutiny of the investment supporting the AI boom. The most revealing development this week was the demand for government bonds even as US inflation accelerated. My assessment is that investors should treat this as a test of financing resilience.

Everyone's dumping Gold after hot US inflation. Here's why $4,100 could be a floor, not a cliff

Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from a sharp sell-off triggered by hotter-than-expected United States (US) inflation data released on Wednesday. The precious metal briefly plunged toward $4,073 as investors increased their bets on further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes before recovering as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD) reversed their initial gains.