Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD nears $3,000 amid tariffs’ optimism

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $3,010.80

Markets kick-started the week with optimism about upcoming Trump’s tariffs.
Major economies will post inflation updates in the upcoming days.
XAU/USD nears the $3,000 threshold and may pierce it in the upcoming sessions.

The US Dollar (USD) surged after Wall Street’s opening, resulting in XAU/USD sliding to $3,005.87. As the American session unfolds, the USD retains its broad near-term strength, resulting in the bright metal trading barely above the aforementioned intraday low.

Optimism leads the way on Monday, with stock markets hesitating throughout the first half of the day, but Wall Street soaring. The three major United States (US) indexes are up over 1.5% each at the time of writing, amid hopes President Donald Trump's pre-announced tariffs for April 2nd would be more targeted than previously threatened. The tech sector is among the best performers after the setback suffered in the last few weeks. Government bond yields are down as investors drop safety and seek high-yielding assets.

According to the latest headlines on the matter, Trump will be announcing tariffs on autos, aluminium and pharmaceuticals in the “very near” future.

Meanwhile, US data was mostly encouraging. S&P Global published the preliminary estimates of the March Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs). The official report states that US business activity growth picked up momentum in March “ as a marked upturn in the service sector offset a renewed fall in manufacturing output.” The Composite PMI improved to 53.5 from 51.6 in February.

There will not be relevant US macroeconomic data on Tuesday, although inflation will be under the spotlight. Several major economies will post updates on price pressures, while the US is meant to release the February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index figures on Friday.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows its under pressure for a third consecutive day, although the decline still seems corrective. The pair keeps developing above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic support at around $2,949.20. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, keep heading north far below the shorter one. Finally, technical indicators continue to retreat from extreme levels, heading lower, although well above their midlines.

The near-term picture is bearish. In the 4-hour chart, a mildly bearish 20 SMA at around 3,030. At the same time, technical indicators gain downward momentum within negative levels, in line with another leg south. Still, the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their bullish slopes over $60 below the current level, limiting the odds for a steeper decline.

Support levels: 2,999.30 2,984.70 2,971.10

Resistance levels: 3,016.25 3,030.50 3,047.40

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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