Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD in wait-and-see mode below $4,100

XAU/USD Current price: $4,075.18

• Speculative interest awaits earnings reports and US macroeconomic updates.
• The odds for a Federal Reserve no change in December stand above 55%.
• XAU/USD turned neutral, with the bearish potential limited despite the latest slide.

Spot Gold trades with a soft tone on Monday, although confined to a well-limited intraday range. The bright metal hovers around $4,070 a troy ounce in the American session, trading at the lower end of Friday’s range, as investors await fresh clues about the United States (US) economic health.

The US Dollar (USD) is mixed across the FX board, but stable, as investors await the release of US figures delayed by the government shutdown. Among other things, the Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Goods Trade balance will be released on Wednesday, while the country will publish the September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Thursday.

US data will be critical ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting in mid-December. The central bank trimmed the benchmark interest rate in October, but raised doubts about a similar movement in December. Currently, the odds of an on-hold decision are above 55%. Such a picture could change once speculative interest assesses fresh macro data.

Other than that, the earnings season kicks in: Several tech-related companies will report in the upcoming days, including the AI giant NVIDIA. As a result, Wall Street is also in a wait-and-see mode, with the three major indexes trading mixed, yet not far from their daily opening levels.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD trades at $4,075.18, and the 4-hour chart shows the risk skews to the downside, although chances of a steeper decline seem limited. The pair is trading below a bearish 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $4,144, but holds above the 100 and 200 SMAs, signaling a near-term correction against a still positive longer-term slope. At the same time, the Momentum indicator and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator both hold within negative levels, although aiming marginally higher, suggesting limited selling interest. A break below the 100-period SMA at $4,043.20 should hint at a steeper decline, while a close above the 20-period SMA at $4,144.05 would lift the bias back to the upside.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD is correcting lower, but it is far from being bearish. The 20-day SMA has turned lower but remains above the rising 100- and 200-day SMAs, while the pair continues to develop above them. The 20-day SMA at $4,051.62 offers nearby dynamic support. At the same time, the Momentum stands above its midline and rising, while the RSI eases at around 53 (neutral), hinting at a slower upside pace.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)