Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holding on to modest intraday gains

XAU/USD Current price: $4,067.89

• United States data was tepid, but enough to keep the US Dollar afloat.
• Investors await earnings reports, with the focus on the tech giant NVIDIA.
• XAU/USD losing upward momentum, but with limited bearish scope.

Spot Gold hovers around $4,060 in the American session on Tuesday, easing from an intraday peak of $4,082. The XAU/USD pair is little changed for a second consecutive day, reflecting investors’ wait-and-see stance ahead of United States (US) data releases scheduled for later this week.

Following the US federal shutdown, the government was finally able to pass a funding bill last week, which means governmental offices resumed activity and hence, data collection.

Market participants are cautious ahead of the announcement, but also wary about earnings reports. Among other companies, Home Depot reported weakening sales growth and cut its outlook for the financial year, blaming the downturn in its performance on a sluggish housing market and weaker consumer sentiment.NVIDIA is also scheduled to report this week, and the results could disrupt financial markets, especially tech-related reports.

Other than that, the US published August Factory Orders, which were up 1.4% on a monthly basis, improving from the -1.3% posted in July. The data is old, but it helped maintain the US Dollar (USD) afloat ahead of more relevant macroeconomic figures.

Additionally, ADP released the four-week average on Employment Change, which showed US private employers shed an average of 2,500 jobs a week in the four weeks ending November 1.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD trading at $4,067.90, up for the day. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) has turned lower, providing dynamic resistance at around $4,090. At the same time, the 200-period SMA continues to rise modestly, now standing at $4,074.85, while holding above the 100-period at $4,041.52, the latter providing relevant dynamic support. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator remains below its midline but edges higher, indicating waning bearish pressure. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands neutral at 46.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD has posted a lower high and a lower low, hinting at increased selling interest without confirming an upcoming decline. The 20-day SMA has turned lower, while the 100- and 200-day SMAs continue to rise, keeping the broader trend supported. Price holds above all these averages, suggesting buyers retain the upper hand. Technical indicators hold within positive levels, with the Momentum rising above its midline, and the RSI holding neutral around 52 with scope to extend if bulls press the advantage. The pair needs to recover beyond the $4,100 level to become more attractive to bulls, an unlikely scenario at the time being.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)