Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD gains bullish traction in a risk-averse environment

XAU/USD Current price: $4,542

• Iran war headlines continue to shape the market’s sentiment.
• United States employment data takes centre stage after the latest Fed’s hawkish shift.
• XAU/USD is neutral-to-bullish in the near term, needs to conquer $4,600.

Spot Gold trades with a positive bias in the American session on Monday, reversing and early bearish gap. The XAU&USD pair hovers around $4,540 after nearing $4,420 at the beginning of the day.

Weekend headlines related to the Iran war boosted demand for the US Dollar (USD) at the opening, as the Houthis, an Iran-backed militant group in Yemen, launched a missile attack on Israel. At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the country would expand operations in southern Lebanon to stop Hezbollah from launching rockets.

The news also affected crude Oil prices, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) peaking just north of $100, and holding nearby throughout the day. Demand for the USD persisted throughout most of the day across the FX board, with the Greenback holding on to substantial gains against most major rivals. The precious metal, however, seems to have partially recovered its safe-haven status, refusing to give up, but temporarily to USD demand.

Meanwhile, the United States (US) macroeconomic calendar for the week will revolve around employment. The country will publish multiple reports, including the ADP Employment Change, weekly unemployment claims, and JOLTS Jobs Openings, ahead of the monthly Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report scheduled for Friday.

The labor market seems little relevant in the ongoing war scenario, but those figures will start shaping bets on the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision and could trigger a lot of market noise, particularly after the central bank shifted to a more hawkish tone in its March monetary policy meeting.

It’s also worth remembering it's a shortened week in financial markets, with some markets off Friday and Monday due to the Easter Holiday.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

In the near term, XAU/USD is mildly bullish. The 4-hour chart shows that the price advances above a flat 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,480 while still holding well below the declining 100- and 200-period SMAs clustered around $4,800–$4,950, which continue to cap the broader trend. The Momentum indicator has recovered into positive territory, signaling improving upside pressure after a prior downswing, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) develops above 50, reinforcing a shift toward buyer control in the short term rather than a full trend reversal.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD has a limited bullish potential, as the pair trades below the 20- and 100-day SMAs, the latter around $4,630. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator stays directionless below its midline, while the RSI hovers below 40, maintaining the risk skewed to the downside but showing no selling conviction.

Immediate resistance emerges at $4,600, followed by the 100-day SMA near $4,630, followed by a bearish 20-day SMA around $4,840. Above that, the $5,000 handle caps the upside as a psychological and recent consolidation area. On the downside, initial support sits at the recent low around $4,500, followed by the $4,400 region, where the prior reaction low converges with the rising 200-day SMA now near $4,120.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)