Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD gaining modest upward traction

XAU/USD Current price: $3,329.73

• China reported a trade surplus of $103.22 billion in May, export and imports plunged.
• The United States will release the May Consumer Price Index next Wednesday.
• XAU/USD recovers from sub-$3,300, buying pressure is modest.

Spot Gold hovers near $3,330 a troy ounce, posting a modest intraday advance at the beginning of the week. XAU/USD recovered from an early low at $3,293.51 and advances after Wall Street’s opening amid renewed US Dollar (USD) weakness and a cautious mood.

Market players await news from trade talks as the United States (US) and China resumed negotiations. Top representatives from Washington and Beijing gather in London to discuss next steps. In the meantime, the Wall Street Journal reported market talks indicating US President Donald Trump authorized Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to negotiate lifting some of the recent restrictions on a variety of products to China. Trump’s goal is to clinch a deal on rare earth minerals coming from China.

Earlier in the day, China reported a Trade Balance surplus of $103.22 billion in May, with Exports slowing to 4.8% year-on-year (YoY) down from the 8.1% posted in April. Imports shrank even further, down by 3.4% in the same period after shedding 0.2% in the year to April 2025.

Meanwhile, a holiday in Europe kept most pairs within familiar levels on Monday, with the bright metal being no exception. In fact, the macroeconomic calendar has little to offer until Wednesday, when the US will publish the May Consumer Price Index (CPI). Financial markets anticipate a modest uptick in the annual reading, not enough to twist the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy stance,

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it bounced from around a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,295, while the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their strong bullish slopes far below the shorter one, in line with the dominant upward trend. At the same time, the Momentum indicator eases within positive levels, reflecting the limited buying interest rather than suggesting a steeper decline ahead. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers at around 52, failing to provide clear directional clues, yet overall suggesting sellers are not interested.

In the near term, XAU/USD aims to extend its recovery, but lacks conviction. The 4-hour chart shows technical indicators recovering within negative levels, still below their midlines. At the same time, the pair is developing below a mildly bearish 20 SMA, yet a mildly bullish 100 SMA advances beyond the 200 SMA while providing near-term support at around $3,3310.

Support levels: 3,310.00 3,295.00 3,278.10

Resistance levels: 3,332.50 3,345.20 3,361.95