Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD flirts with $3,400 amid poor US data

XAU/USD Current price: $3,382.06

• US President Donald Trump threatened the EU after announcing a deal on Monday.
• The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index contracted to 50.1 in June.
• XAU/USD is bullish in the near term, but still needs to conquer $3,400.

Gold price maintains its positive momentum on Wednesday, reaching a fresh weekly high in the $3,390 area during American trading hours. The bright metal surged following the release of the United States (US) ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), as the indicator came in worse than anticipated, barely printing at 50.1 in July, below the 50.8 posted in June and missing expectations of 51.5.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump threatens tariffs left and right: following news on Monday indicating massive levies on India, Trump said it would hit the Eurozone with tariffs of 35% if they fail to fulfil their commitments.

Additionally, the personal war between the US President and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell continues. On the one hand, he said that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is not a candidate to lead the Fed, as he should remain in his current position. On the other hand, he is working on replacing Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, who unexpectedly resigned, effective on Friday, with a candidate who advocates for interest rate cuts.

The poor performance of Wall Street following dismal US data and higher US Treasury yields reflects the souring mood.

The American macroeconomic calendar has little to offer on Wednesday, while the upcoming Asian session will bring the New Zealand monthly employment report. Later in the day, the EU will publish June Retail Sales.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it met buyers around a mildly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) for a second consecutive day, with the indicator currently at around $3,347. The same chart shows the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their bullish slopes below the shorter one, in line with the bulls’ dominance. Technical indicators, however, barely hold above their midlines, lacking directional strength. Overall, the risk skews to the upside, but the momentum is missing.

The near-term picture seems more encouraging for bulls. In the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD pair bottomed around a flat 100 SMA, while a bullish 20 SMA aims to cross above it, usually a sign of directional continuation. Finally, technical indicators resumed their advances near overbought readings, hinting at persistent upward pressure.

Support levels: 3,362.10 3,347.00 3.338.60

Resistance levels: 3,396.90 3,407.75 3,420.10