Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD finding buyers on dips

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $4,728

United States and Iran talks collapsed on Sunday, Iran's war back at the top of investors’ concerns.
The US initiated its own blockage of the Strait of Hormuz to halt Iran's tankers’ passage.
XAU/USD is neutral in the near term, needs to reconquer the $4,800 mark.

Spot Gold trades with a sour tone on Monday, although still confined to a tight range just above the $4,700 mark. The bright metal is indifferent to mounting fears, after the United States (US) and Iran negotiations failed over the weekend.

On Sunday, following a marathon 20-hour talk, both parties announced they were unable to reach a deal. Not actually a surprise. The US demands that Iran abandon its uranium enrichment program, a condition to end the war, something Tehran is unwilling to do. As a result, US President Donald Trump announced a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, effective Monday. The Strait is now suffering a double blockage, with the US aiming to prevent Iran’s oil from leaving the Middle East.

The weekly opening brought the usual US Dollar (USD) demand and higher Oil prices, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering around $95. During American trading hours, however, there were headlines indicating that Iranian officials are studying US demand to interrupt their nuclear program, leading to some USD weakness. Other headlines indicating that mediators are looking for a 45-60 day ceasefire added to the market’s better mood.

The XAU/USD pair fell towards $4,632 at the beginning of the day, but quickly recovered the $100 loss and trades around Friday’s closing level.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

In the four-hour chart, XAU/USD is neutral, as it holds below the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) at roughly $4,739.71 and the longer-term 200-period SMA near $4,858.70. The pair still finds underlying trend support from the 100-period SMA around $4,605.65. The Momentum indicator aims marginally lower around its midline, and a neutral Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 50 hints that upside attempts lack conviction for now.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD holds a constructive near-term bias as spot prices remain well above the rising 20-day SMA around $4,658, the 100-day SMA near $4,687, and the more distant 200-day SMA close to $4,186, collectively reinforcing a broader uptrend backdrop. Momentum is improving, with the 14-day indicator in positive territory, though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just below the 50 line hints that buying pressure is steady rather than exuberant after the latest rebound from recent lows.

On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned at the 20-period SMA around $4,739.71, with the 200-period SMA at $4,858.70 reinforcing a higher cap if gains extend. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day SMA near $4,658, followed by the shorter 100-period SMA near $4,605.65.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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