Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes US economic data for a fresh boost higher

Gold price is trying hard to sustain the previous bullish momentum early Wednesday, trading around the $2,000 barrier, awaiting a fresh batch of key US economic data releases for fresh hints on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook.  

US data in focus, progressing toward the Thanksgiving holiday

So far this Wednesday’s trading, the United States Dollar (USD) is attempting a recovery amid a pause in the US Treasury bond yield sell-off and a souring market mood. Markets have turned jittery due to the uncertainty on the global interest rate outlook, especially after the recent commentaries from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) were perceived as hawkish by market participants, overshadowing the dovish Fed expectations.

The Fed’s November meeting’s Minutes on Tuesday revealed that “participants noted that further tightening of monetary policy would be appropriate if incoming information indicated that progress toward the Committee's inflation objective was insufficient.” The Minutes reinforced the Fed’s ‘higher rates for longer’ stance, allowing the US Dollar buyers some breather from the recent downtrend.

Further, a negative close on Wall Street overnight also fuelled some buying interest around the Greenback, capping the upside in the Gold price. However, the sustained weakness in the US Treasury bond yields kept Gold price underpinned near a three-week high of 2,008 reached earlier in the day.

Meanwhile, Gold buyers also felt the brunt of easing geopolitical tensions between Hamas and Israel, especially after the latter approved a deal of ceasefire in which 50 women and children would be freed by Hamas. 

Later in the day, Gold traders will look forward to the US Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims and Michigan Consumer Sentiment data for fresh signs on the strength of the US economy, which could have a significant bearing on the Fed’s policy outlook and the US dollar valuations, eventually impacting the Gold price.

Markets could also resort to repositioning ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday-leading into thin trading toward the weekend. Therefore, Gold price could be subject to a volatility spike toward the end of the day.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price has charted a Bull Cross on daily sticks after the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) closed above the 100-day SMA on Tuesday.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding well above the midline, suggesting that the bullish potential remains well in place and every pullback in Gold price could be seen as a good buying opportunity.

Daily closing above the $2,000 threshold could initiate a fresh advance toward the multi-month high of $2,009. The next upside target is envisioned at the mid-May high near $2,020.

On the other side, Gold sellers need to crack the 21-day SMA at $1,975 to reinforce Gold sellers toward the $1,955-$1,950 region.

A sustained break below the last could threaten the November 14 low at $1,944, followed by the ascending 200-day SMA at $1,939.