Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD corrects but geopolitical woes could cap losses ahead of US NFP
- Gold price extends correction from record highs for the second consecutive day on Friday.
- Hawkish Fedspeak and geopolitical tensions rekindle the US Dollar demand amid risk aversion.
- Gold price downside could be limited ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls data.
Gold price is carrying forward its corrective mode into the second straight day on Friday, having hit a fresh record high at $2,305 in Thursday’s Asian session. A broad US Dollar (USD) rebound on hawkish commentaries from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and heightened geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran weigh down on the Gold price, as traders brace for the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release.
All eyes remain on the US Nonfarm Payrolls report
On Thursday, the US Dollar staged a solid comeback from two-week lows of 103.92 against its major counterparts after hawkish remarks from Fed officials Goolsbee, Kashkari, and Barkin spelled doom for the US stocks and fuelled risk-aversion. Hawkish Fedspeak tempered the rising expectations for a June Fed rate cut. Markets are currently pricing a roughly 60% probability that the Fed will begin lowering rates in June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, slightly down from a 62% chance shown a day ago.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday that if housing inflation does not come down, would be very difficult to return inflation to 2%”. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari noted that “if inflation continues to move sideways, makes me wonder if we should cut rates at all this year”. Finally, "Disinflation is likely to continue, but the speed of that remains unclear”, adding, "I think it is smart for the Fed to take our time.”
Early Friday, the US Dollar is holding its recovery mode amid an extended risk-off mood in Asia, as investors take account of the escalating Israel-Iran geopolitical woes. Persistent US Dollar strength is boding ill for the Gold price even as the US Treasury bond yields lick their wounds. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's continued war drum-beating rhetoric, postponing leave for combat troops and increasing its air defense command to prepare for any Iranian missile or drone attacks, per the Guardian.
This comes after the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) reportedly warned Israel that Iran will attack within the next 48 hours. If the geopolitical tensions intensify, the downside in the Gold price could remain a cushion, as the bright metal is considered the ultimate traditional safety asset.
However, the US Nonfarm Payrolls data also poses a big risk to Gold price. Economists are expecting the US economy to add 200K jobs in March, as against a 275K job gain recorded in February. Average Hourly Earnings are seen rising 4.1% YoY in the same period, down from a 4.3% increase in February. Weak US data could reinforce dovish Fed expectations, prompting Gold price to resume its record-setting uptrend.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
As expected, the extremely overbought 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) conditions triggered a correction in Gold price, also as the bright metal failed to close Thursday above the $2,300 round level.
The extension of the Gold price pullback could test the immediate support of the April 3 low at $2,265, below which the psychological $2,250 level will come into play.
A breach of the latter could fuel a sharp drop toward the $2,200 threshold.
However, if Gold buyers manage to regain poise, acceptance above the record high of $2,305 will be critical to unleashing further upside toward the $2,350 psychological level.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Author
Dhwani Mehta
FXStreet
Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.
