Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD comfortable above $4,200

XAU/USD Current price: $4,211

• Upbeat United States employment data revived investors’ optimism.
• The Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
• XAU/USD regained its positive stance, momentum still limited.

Gold prices are up on Tuesday, with the bright metal now hovering around $4,215 a troy ounce. A better market mood undermines near-term demand for the US Dollar (USD), despite the improved sentiment surging from upbeat United States (US) data.

On the one hand, ADP reported that for the four weeks ending November 22, US private employers added an average of 4,750 jobs per week, an improvement from the previous negative readings. Also, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the number of job openings on the last business day of September stood at 7.658 million, while for October it rose to 7.67 million. The news initially triggered USD demand, but the Greenback quickly changed course on sentiment.

Now, the focus shifts to the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The central bank is widely anticipated to trim the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) after its two-day meeting and announce it on Wednesday. The Fed will also release a fresh Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) in which policymakers share their perspectives on economic and monetary policy developments.

Additionally, the focus is on the upcoming Fed Chair. Jerome Powell will end his mandate in May 2026, and the long-lasting battle with President Donald Trump will come to an end. President Trump has demanded the Fed cut rates at a much faster pace, and the upcoming Chair will likely align with his thinking. Market players are looking for clues in a more aggressive monetary loosening with the new Fed head. Lower borrowing costs are likely to fuel demand for stocks while sending the USD into a selling spiral.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD trades at $4,211.37, and the 4-hour chart shows that the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) stabilizes above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, while the longer averages edge higher below the current level, suggesting that buyers have regained control. Price holds just above the shorter one, keeping the near-term tone firm. Technical indicators, however, show that the bullish potential remains limited. The Momentum indicator sits below 0 and falls, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands directionless at 53. A pause in the advance could find initial support at the 20-period SMA at $4,205.76, with a deeper setback exposing the 100-period SMA at $4,150.61.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD remains confined to familiar levels. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) advances above the 100- and 200-day SMAs, with all three rising while price holds above them. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator ticks higher within positive levels, while the RSI stands at 60, both keeping the near-term tone positive. A sustained hold over the 20-day SMA would keep the path tilted higher. A break lower would expose the 100-day SMA at $3,792.65 and, if extended, the 200-day SMA at $3,515.46.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)