Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bounces from near $2,000, bears on pause

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: 2,015.53

Federal Reserve´s Raphael Bostic repeated rate cuts may come in the third quarter.
Wall Street shrugged off the negative tone of its overseas counterparts, posting modest gains.
XAU/USD corrects near-term oversold conditions, bears hold the grip.

Gold consolidates weekly losses, trading at around $2,015 a troy ounce. XAU/USD posted a multi-week low on Wednesday at $2,001.68, bouncing back amid a modest improvement in the market’s mood. The US Dollar maintained its positive tone throughout the first half of the day as Asian shares fell, with Chinese headlines leading the way. Turmoil in the housing sector and tepid growth-related data suggest the economy is in worse shape than previously believed.

Market players became more optimistic with Wall Street’s opening, as United States (US) data was generally better than expected. Housing Starts and Building Permits were up more than anticipated in December, while Initial Jobless Claims printed at 187K in the week ending January 12, beating the 207K expected. On a negative note, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey Index posted -10.6, worse than the expected -7 but improving from the previous -12.8.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials fail to provide fresh clues. Different authorities hit the wires but made no fresh comments on the future of monetary policy. Fed’s Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic was maybe the most aggressive, reiterating he does not expect policymakers to cut interest rates until the third quarter of this year, a message he already delivered in previous appearances.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD is still at risk of falling. The daily chart shows that the bright metal develops below a mildly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the 100 and 200 SMAs offer no directional clues well below the current level. At the same time, technical indicators have lost their bearish strength but remain well into negative territory, falling short of suggesting an interim bottom.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the recovery seems corrective. XAU/USD holds far below all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA heading firmly south below directionless longer ones. Finally, technical indicators are bouncing from oversold readings but with limited strength and still far below their midlines. The pair would need to recover at least beyond 2,049.20 to have a chance of recovering its bullish strength.

Support levels: 2,001.60 1,988.60 1,973.00

Resistance levels: 2,017.50 2,033.10 2,049.20

View Live Chart for XAU/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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