Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD begins a new record run

XAU/USD Current price: $4,610

• The December United States Consumer Price Index came in line with expectations.
• US President Donald Trump announced fresh tariffs on those trading with Iran.
• XAU/USD reached fresh record highs, risk sentiment likely to keep it running.

Broad US Dollar (USD) weakness kept Gold afloat on Tuesday, with the XAU/USD pair trading above $4,600. The Greenback ticked lower at the beginning of the American session, following the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI), but quickly resumed its advance, amid a risk-averse environment.

The CPI rose at an annualized pace of 2.7% in December, while the monthly increase was of 0.3%, as expected. Core inflation was reported at 2.6% and 0.2%, respectively, slightly lower than anticipated but matching November readings. The figures reaffirmed the market’s view that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged in the near term, putting pressure on high-yielding assets such as equities and bonds.

XAU/USD initially rallied to a fresh all-time high of $4,634, later giving up to broad USD demand. Still, and as a dismal mood rules financial markets, the bright metal retracement was limited.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump added fuel to the fire: earlier in the day, the US leader announced tariffs of 25% on those countries doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran. New levies will be effective immediately and apply to “any and all” business done between those countries and the USA.

The US will release November Retail Sales on Wednesday, another first-tier figure that could shape USD demand.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD trades around $4,610, retaining its positive tone. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) stands above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, and all three slope higher, while the price develops above all of them, underscoring a firm bullish bias. The 20 SMA currently stands at $4,548.34, offering nearby dynamic support. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator eases within positive levels, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator turned neutral at around 67, reflecting the ongoing pause in the latest run.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD is up for the fourth consecutive day. The 20-day SMA extends its advance above the 100- and 200-day SMAs, reinforcing a bullish structure. All three SMAs trend higher, and price holds above them, with the shorter one at $4,424 drawing a line in the sand. Finally, technical indicators are barely easing from extreme overbought readings, reflecting the ongoing correction and far from suggesting the bullish run is over.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)