Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD battle to regain $5,000 continues

XAU/USD Current price: $4,999

• FOMC Minutes unlikely to impact prices with all eyes on Kevin Warsh.
• The US Dollar trades mixed amid persistent political uncertainty in the United States.
• XAU/USD maintains its neutral stance, upside capped by the $5,030 region

Spot Gold trades with a better tone on Thursday, trimming previous session losses and struggling to recover the $5,000 mark in the American session. The bright metal managed to recover from a weekly low of $4,842.06 achieved on Wednesday, but the lack of follow-through is likely to keep buying interest subdued.

The US Dollar (USD) trades mixed across the FX board as investors await the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) February monetary policy meeting. Policymakers held the interest rate unchanged when they met in January, in line with the market expectations. The accompanying statement provided not many clues on what’s next in the docket, while the following press conference led by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell revolved around politics rather than monetary policy.

And there’s a good reason for that: Chair Powell’s term ends in May, and President Donald Trump has already nominated Kevin Warsh as his successor. Warsh's Senate approval remains pending, but market players assume he will be the next head of the Fed and that he will deliver rate cuts. How many and at what pace remains a doubt. Yet the biggest doubt is whether the Fed could remain independent if Warsh shows signs of pleasing Trump rather than following the FOMC’s path.

Back to the Minutes, the document has little chance of impressing market players, as all eyes are on whatever Warsh may or may not do.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The 4-hour chart for XAU/USD shows the pair remains neutral. It trades above a flat 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,961.02, while a directionless 100-period SMA caps advances at $5,009.35. The 200-period SMA aims higher at $4,844.63, keeping the broader bias underpinned even as price consolidates between the shorter benchmarks. At the same time, the Momentum indicator heads nowhere around its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator steadies at 55, reinforcing the idea of a consolidative phase.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD is unable to advance beyond a bullish 20-day SMA at around $5,003 for a second consecutive day. Meanwhile, technical indicators bounced, the Momentum from near oversold readings and still dipped into negative territory, and the RSI indicator from around its midline, aiming north at around 54. The longer moving averages in the daily chart maintainain their bullish slopes far below the current level, helping limit the mid-term bearish case.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)