Gold price forecast: Bullish scenario begins to materialize

Gold sustained recovery amidst risk-off mode

Over the past few sessions, gold has continued to solidify its recovery structure, confirming a shift in sentiment from bearish caution to bullish momentum. While many were anticipating a deeper retracement after the recent highs, gold bulls seem to be taking control again, driven by a combination of strong institutional forecasts, technical reclaim of key levels, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

This development aligns with our earlier forecast Gold price forecast: Bullish and bearish scenario amid Israel-Iran conflict and US tariff tensions

Fundamental tailwinds: Institutional forecasts support continued upside

Gold’s bullish momentum isn’t just technical—it’s being fueled by institutional conviction:

• HSBC recently revised its 2025 forecast for gold to $3,215, with potential spikes up to $3,600 amid fiscal uncertainty and policy shifts.
• Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan also project upside toward $3,675–$4,000, citing gold’s rising role as a hedge against economic volatility.

These forecasts are no longer just speculation - they’re being backed by price action.

Geopolitical risk: Israel-Iran tensions reinforce risk-off demand

In the Middle East, the Israel–Iran conflict remains a central catalyst for gold’s safe-haven flows. While no full-scale escalation has occurred in recent days, tensions remain high, particularly with ongoing cyber and proxy threats from both sides.

Markets remain in risk-off mode, especially as global investors reduce exposure to equities and rotate capital into defensive assets. Gold has once again become a geopolitical hedge, further fueled by tariff tensions between the U.S. and China ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline.

Technical outlook

Gold has been advancing with a sustained move to the upside and few signs of strength invalidation. This upside momentum is also being supported with 3 4-Hour Fair Value Gaps that is still in-tact.

With institutions revising their forecast for new highs on Gold, we could anticipate Gold to potentially break the All-Time High level at $3,500.

Bullish scenario: FVG reclaim and breakout continuation

Gold is currently testing the $3,360 level for new highs. We could see further upside if we see:

• A clean breakout above $3,370 confirms bullish intent and opens the path to $3,400–$3,420. (This was our outlined target based on the previous analysis: Gold price forecast: Bullish and bearish scenario amid Israel-Iran conflict and US tariff tensions)
• Fair Value Gaps remain intact:
• • 1st Layer Fair Value Gap - $3,320 - $3,325
  • 2nd Layer Fair Value Gap - $3,310 - $3,314
  • 3rd Layer Fair Value Gap - $3,300 - $3,302
• Favorable risk sentiment (e.g., risk-off tone, weak USD, or dovish Fed narrative)

Targets:

• $3,400 - $3,450

Bearish scenario: Distribution and breakdown through FVGs

Alternatively, the current consolidation may reflect distribution at premium pricing, especially after failing to break above the $3,370 area convincingly.

• Fair Value Gaps fail to hold:
• • 1st Layer Fair Value Gap - $3,320 - $3,325.
  • 2nd Layer Fair Value Gap - $3,310 - $3,314.
  • 3rd Layer Fair Value Gap - $3,300 - $3,302.
• Consolidation near or at $3,300 could pose a risk for further pullback on Gold.
• Shift in sentiment toward risk-on, USD strength, or hawkish Fed messaging.