Gold Price Forecast: Acceptance above $1,917 to unleash further upside, Ukraine in focus

Gold remains in a win-win situation, sitting pretty at eight-month highs above $1,900. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia escalate over the Ukrainian crisis, boosting the metal’s safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, soaring inflation worldwide bodes well for the inflation-hedge, gold. The United Nations (UN) Security Council held an emergency meeting to discuss the Russian government’s recognition of two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine and its order to deploy Russian troops to them.

With the West condemning a likely invasion from Russia on Ukraine and the US looking to announce a set of sanctions on Moscow this Tuesday, the geopolitical tensions are far from over, as hopes for diplomacy have been thrown out of the window. The risk-sensitive assets, including global stocks and yields have been smashed, which has triggered fresh flows into the safe-havens such as gold, US Treasuries and the dollar.

The US economic releases and Fedspeaks continue to play a second fiddle amid a relatively data-light week and amidst heightening geopolitical risks. Despite the pullback in gold price from multi-month highs of $1,914, the bullish potential remains intact. Markets are likely to seek bargain hunting opportunities in gold on its every corrective attempt, as geopolitical developments will continue to dominate in the balance of the week.

Gold Price Chart - Technical outlook

Gold: Daily chart

Technically, the June 2021 highs of $1,917 remain on bulls’ sights, as a bull cross confirmation is likely to play out.

The 100-Daily Moving Average (DMA) cut the 200-DMA from above on Monday, fuelling the renewed upside in gold price.

However, the overbought conditions on the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) warrant caution for gold buyers.   

Any retracement will look for support at the $1,900 threshold, below which the round level of $1,890 could be put to test.

A firm break below the latter will open up the further downside towards Tuesday’s high of $1,880.

The $1,850 support area will be back on sellers’ radars should the correction gather steam.

If the risk-off-driven rally in gold price resumes, then bulls will retest the eight-month tops, above which the June 2021 highs will come into the picture.

The next bullish target is aligned at $1,950, the psychological barrier.