Gold is still hovering between 1310-1315

REVIEW AND PREVIEW

Worries of escalating trade wars could be a longer-term negative for the dollar, even as the currency gets a temporary lift ahead of the Fed's meeting next week. The dollar is seeing some support as the markets anticipate that the Fed will raise interest rates by a quarter-point next Wednesday. But the dollar has also been buffeted by other headlines, including threats of a trade war with China and a tumultuous reshuffling of cabinet members, with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson the latest to leave and others rumored to be fired by President Donald Trump. – Patti Domm, “Trade War Scare Could Bring on a Dollar Slump,” www.cnbc.com, March 16, 2018.

First it is steel beams, then Jim Beam, then Beemers. Remember that tariffs are effectively taxes… Trade wars have a way of intensifying. Immediately after announcing tariffs, the European Union warned that it would slap penalties on American bourbon. (Trump) replied that the U.S. could impose tariffs on European cars. That is exactly how trade wars escalate…. The tariffs also punish American allies more than any other nations… the top three exporters of steel to the U.S. are Canada, Brazil, and South Korea. – Alan Binder, former vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve, “This is Exactly How Trade Wars Begin,” Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2018.

The markets are very nervous. They became more nervous in the past two weeks since Donald Trump announced his intention of implying tariffs, especially on China and our closest trade partners. That tension escalated even more last week on Trump’s firing of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, following the prior week’s resignation by Chief Economic Advisor Gary Cohn, with the prospect of more exits shortly by other top administration officials. Amidst all of the instability and uncertainty, the stock markets of the world are exhibiting their own uncertainty and confusion. They try to rally, but they struggle to make or maintain new highs. They try to sell off, but they can’t break below important support.

Last week witnessed the NASDAQ rallying to a new all-time highs early Tuesday, but not accompanied by either the DJIA or S&P. They all then declined, especially the NASDAQ, into the end of the week, despite a rather feeble attempt to recover by the other two indices. Most world indices, including the DJIA, Nikkei, DAX, and Hang Seng, couldn’t even take out their highs of February 27, which were well below their highs of the prior month, for multiple cases of intermarket bearish divergence. They are nervous. Maybe it is because the Sun is in Pisces, the last degrees of the last sign of the zodiac. It is a symbol of an end to a cycle and the start of a new one when the Sun enters Aries. Winter officially ends and spring begins, in the northern hemisphere. But because it is Pisces, we tend to be unable to see the end. We tend to be unable to see anything clearly, except God, and we wonder if that is an illusion too because this is usually a time indicating a crisis in faith. Is it a crisis of faith in ourselves, or in our leaders? It is a certainly a crisis of faith in the future direction of equities, related to a crisis of faith in the future of the national and world economy, now that the possibility of trade wars is on the table and in discussions in the board rooms of major global corporations.

And then again, maybe this is all a strategic negotiation tactic by President Trump to secure better trade deals, as his newly appointed Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow believes. Maybe Donald Trump is the smartest man in the world. Or, in the words of Wall Street columnist Peggy Noonan, “You think: On some level, this is working. And on some level, he is crazy. Then you realize everything you’ve learned in life as a leader... tells you this: Crazy doesn’t last. Crazy doesn’t go the distance. Crazy is an unstable element that, when let loose in an unstable environment, explodes. And so your disquiet. Sooner or later something bad will happen… centrists and moderates are seeing what Trump supporters cannot, will not, see.” (Wall Street Journal, March 10-11, 2018). On the other hand, if he is the smartest man on the planet, or even an exceptional negotiator who really understands the “art of the deal,” then the USA and its allies may be on the brink of a powerful rising economy and stock market. That requires an awful lot of faith in the leader of the free world, which is another reason so many are experiencing a crisis in faith. It is either boom or bust, and possibly both, in that order, according to the history of Saturn, Uranus, and Pluto cycles unfolding in 2018-2023, as discussed in the Forecast 2018 Book.

One would think this uncertainty and nervousness would have been bullish for precious metals and Bitcoin, but it wasn’t. Gold is still hovering between 1310-1315, while Silver fell to 16.20 on Friday. Both are near their lows for this year recorded on our March 1 three-star geocosmic critical reversal date. Bitcoin fell to 7670 on March 15, its lowest level in five weeks, since it bottomed at 5911 on February 6. It has already rallied 12% off that low in just one day.

SHORT-TERM GEOCOSMICS AND LONGER-TERM THOUGHTS

You can’t always get what you want.
But if you try sometimes,
Well, you just might find…
You get what you need”

The Rolling Stones, “You Can’t Always Get What You Want,” 1969.

The final Jupiter transit on the March 13 coincided with the end of the stock market rally associated with the Jupiter-heavy time band of March 1-13. Now we head into a new series of transits that have a historical correlation to reversals in many financial markets. The most notable will be Mercury turning retrograde on March 22, followed by Venus making a square to Pluto and conjunction to Uranus on March 23 and 28. Each of these has a 70-80% rate of frequency to 4% reversals in US stock indices within 4 trading days. The orb of influence of each these overlap March 22-28, too.

It is confusing enough for investors, with the Sun in Pisces until Tuesday, March 20. But it isn’t likely to get clearer when Mercury turns retrograde March 22-April 14. Politicians and bankers may be tempted to make decisions that are not well-thought out. Either adjustments will have to be made afterwards, or there will be unintended consequences during or shortly following that period. People need time to gather all the information necessary in order to make intelligent decisions. This is a time band best used to gather that information, but not necessarily to make that final decision, especially if you are a Gemini who is prone to change his/her mind, and who wishes to keep his/her options open.

There may be other factors arising that sustain the level of tension and nervousness currently being experienced by market participants. The Sun will make a square to Mars and Saturn, March 24-29, followed by the war-like conjunction of Mars and Saturn in Capricorn on April 2. This may be a frustrating period for those who try to push matters through quickly. Nothing good comes from forcing an issue before its time is ripe. For those who try to do this, the usual reaction is one of frustration and then anger. This period can be used constructively to just work hard on your own projects, get them completed correctly (and without rushing), and do not depend on support from others who simply aren’t interested in supporting you or who do not have the time to help you because of their own heavy workload. Those who succeed under this combination are both independent and self-sufficient. Those who do not succeed, tend to be needy and overly dependent of approval from others, and then over-react when they don’t get that support or approval from others that they want. 

The climate gets easier after early April, as tensions start to recede. Until then, try not to stress yourself out. Breathe deeply, work hard (but don’t overwork), and stick to your plans. You can always get what you need, especially if you just try sometimes.