• Currencies remain stuck in the mud... 

  • Gold gains yesterday and gives back its gains today... UGH! 

Good Day.. And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, day one back in the saddle was OK, but getting up this morning was another story! I might as well, have rolled over and gone back to sleep, for there isn’t, once again, much movement in the currencies or metals… UGH! It was a quiet day here now that two of my grandkids have gone home… I honestly don’t know where the day went, and I questioned myself when I went around to turn off the lights last night! But… It happens! I did get to speak to my good friend, the Retirementor, Dennis Miller, yesterday. We were putting our heads together for another interview… Should be a good one! Neil Young greets me this morning with his song: Southern Man…

So… How’s your NCAA Basketball Bracket? I’m OK, so far, hanging tough, but sure wish I hadn’t taken our St. Louis University Billikens in the first round! Loyalty will get you nowhere! HA! I’m the only one in our family bracket contest that picked Michigan St. to win it all… So… Go Spartans!

OK, so like I mentioned above, yesterday was a non-trading event day once again… You know how a bull paws at the ground, and stands in one place while it is thinking about its charge? That’s how I view the currencies and metals right now… What will be the cause of the change of sentiment among traders? Well, if the Fed changing horses in the middle of the stream didn’t change their sentiment toward the dollar, I’m not sure I know what will! But there will be a plethora of candidates that will attempt to unseat the dollar’s hold on trader sentiment… And one of them just might be bad data from the U.S….. Sure we’ve seen our share of weaker data around the world, but that doesn’t matter, given the dollar’s use around the world… it’s all about the U.S. folks… And that’s where I think the dollar will find a dark alley soon…  

Gold found a way to add $8 to its price yesterday, but in the early trading this morning nearly all of that $8 gains has been given back! UGH! Up one day, wiped out the next... reminds me of a Frank Sinatra song... Riding high in April, shot down in May... I think of this prolonged time of sitting here waiting for an upward move, as opportunity... For those out there that have procrastinated and put off buying Gold... 

Well, can we all just get along now? The Mueller Report has been filed, and it only costs taxpayers $25 Million! Hey that sounds cheap, doesn’t it? What a waste of money, time, effort, etc. now could we just all get along now? And that’s all I have to say about that, for this is not a discussion on politics!

While the U.S. media has been all tied up in knots waiting for the Mueller Report, China has been making moves that are very reminiscent of a time a about a decade ago, when China was going around signing nation after nation to a currency swap agreement… first it was reported that China had gotten Italy to join in the one Belt plan… But then this was also reported to have been done by the Chinese in the past few days… Reuters reports that “France signed 15 business contracts with China worth billions of euros on Monday, including a 300-plane order with Airbus and a 1 billion euro contract for EDF to build an offshore wind farm in China.”

• The Airbus order “was the most lucrative of the deals unveiled in Paris, with a French presidency official saying it was worth about 30 billion euros ($33.94 billion).”

• “France’s Fives and China National Building Materials Group signed a 1 billion euro ($1.13 billion) deal to cooperate on energy savings in developing countries, [and] shipping line CMA CGM and China State Shipbuilding Corporation signed a 1.2 billion euro ($1.36 billion) deal to build 10 container ships.”

• French poultry exports are welcome in China again: An embargo imposed that followed bird flu outbreaks in France was lifted.

Chuck Again... China isn’t wasting any time finding new trade partners to help smooth out the bumps in the road caused by the U.S. and their Trade Wars… Speaking of such, the Trade War Talks have gone nowhere… They have until the end of March to agree to something or the next round of tariffs begin… I doubt that there will be any Midnight agreements here… So, we can expect more Trade problems going forward… In my humble opinion that is…

Ok… the euro is trading in the same clothes as yesterday morning, but still above 1.13… Most of the currencies can’t find a bid with both hands… The Aussie dollar (A$) and kiwi have moved higher and into levels that they've reached before, but have been slapped back... As I explained yesterday, I doubt this continues much longer… But a wise man on a bond trading desk told me years ago… The markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent… Meaning that Mr. Market will decide when to pull the rug from under the dollar, and not me, or anyone else!

So, I mention above that I spoke to Dennis Miller yesterday. He had sent me an article to read, and highlighted a paragraph from the Credit Bulletin that he thought I would take interest in, since they mention my economics hero, Hy Minsky… Let’s listen in to what the writer of the Credit Bulletin had to say…

“March 17 – Financial Times (Rana Foroohar): “Hyman Minsky would have had a field day with last week’s US inflation numbers. One of the key points in the late, great economist’s Financial Instability Hypothesis was that there are two kinds of prices — prices for goods and services, and asset prices. Inflation in the two areas should, as a result, differ. And indeed they have, quite markedly. The latest Consumer Price Index figures show that almost all core inflation, which was weaker than expected, was in rent or the owner’s equivalent of rent (up 0.3%). Core goods inflation, meanwhile, was down 0.2%. Very simply, this means that the housing market is once again completely out of sync with the rest of the economy. A decade on from the subprime bubble, housing… is the only major component of the CPI with a national inflation rate that is consistently above the overall number.” - Credit Bulletin... 

The U.S. Data Cupboard comes back on board today with some housing data, including the Case/Shiller Home Price Index for January... This data has shown home prices sliding in recent prints, so it will be interesting to see if that trend continues... In addition, we'll also see the stupid Consumer Confidence Index... Lemmings being led to a cliff, if you ask me... 

Before I head to the Big Finish today, this came to me last night and says a lot, folks... says a lot...  All around the world…. Bonds will be bonds… It’s the same ol', same old situation… Ah, nothing like changing some lyrics to make the song work with what you’re going to talk about, eh? I thankthe members of Motley Crue… OK… I was minding my own business when I received an email from Twitter telling me there was something I needed to see… And sure shootin’ there was! This was taken from Eric Pomboy’s twitter feed… “Market Value of Global Negative Yielding Bonds rises $421bln today to $10.07 trillion. TEN TRILLION.

To recap... Another day of little to no movements in currencies. Gold found a way to gain $8 but has given it right back early this morning. Day by day, bond markets all over the world are telling investors the same thing... That things are going to get rough for economies all over the world, but most importantly, here in the U.S. The A$ and kiwi found a way to move higher, but for how long? Questions all around...

Or, here's your snippet: "This is going to get very ugly. Germany is openly defying U.S. President Trump's demands to spend more on its NATO budget. Already the American ambassador to the country, Richard Grenell, is crying foul, prompting German calls for his expulsion.

Of all the countries in the European Union, it is Germany that's been mostly on the receiving end of Trump's wrath since he entered the White House. In two years, the bilateral relation between Washington and Berlin has plummeted under the weight of Trump's withering verbal attacks.

The American president has assailed Germany for unfair trading practices over its lucrative auto exports; and he has virtually accused Berlin of treason in its dealings with Russia for natural gas supply, threatening to slap economic sanctions on German firms over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project under the Baltic Sea.

Grenell's condemnations this week regarding Germany's military budget have again sparked furor among the country's politicians and media, eliciting further public calls for the envoy to be expelled owing to his alleged gross interference in Berlin's internal affairs. "An ambassador is not supposed to act like the spokesman of an occupying power," said Wolfgang Kubicki, the deputy leader of the Free Democrat Party.

The New York Times this week reported "the timing couldn't be worse" for U.S.-German relations. Next month marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the NATO alliance. A major celebration is due to take place in Washington D.C. for the occasion. The atmosphere will be severely chilled by Germany's truculent defiance of Trump to boost its commitment to NATO."

Chuck Again... when did not obeying what the U.S. demands become vogue? Interesting article I must say... 

Currencies today 3/26/19 American Style: A$.7130, kiwi .6903, C$ .7467, euro 1.1320, sterling 1.3230, Swiss $1.0068, European Style: rand 14.3744, krone 8.5190, SEK 9.2233, forint 278.80, zloty 3.7920, koruna 22.7585, RUB 64.30, yen 110.37, sing 1.3502, HKD 7.8494, INR 68.90, China 6.7096, peso 19.00, BRL 3.8866, Dollar Index 96.49, Oil $59.58, 10-year 2.44%, Silver $15.46, Platinum 852.23, Palladium $1.566.64, and Gold... $1,314.61

That's it for today... The sunrise was beautiful this morning, and it should be a good warm day here, before the next cold front comes through tonight... I laugh at the weather people down here, they make it sound like the temps are going to go to zero, "as a cold front moves through, and we get chillier temperatures"... Yeah, instead of 82 it'll be 76... funny, eh? Our Blues won their 4th game in a row last night... this past Saturday night they beat the Tampa Bay Lightening (the best team in hockey) There aren't many games left in the regular season, before the playoffs start... This team has gone from being really bad early in the season to a well oiled machine now... fingers crossed! Go Blues! A Flock of Seagulls takes us to the finish line today with their song: Space Age Love Song... I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday, and will Be Good To Yourself!

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