Gold forecast: Will Fed cuts and geopolitical risks drive new highs?

Gold’s recent rally to near-record highs has entered a consolidation phase after peaking above $3,400. The pullback was accelerated by profit-taking and easing tariff fears after U.S. officials clarified that imported gold bars would not face tariffs.

The macro backdrop remains broadly bullish:

• Dovish Fed bets surged after soft U.S. labor data, with markets now pricing in a high probability of a September rate cut.
• Geopolitical hedging remains a driver as global trade tensions and currency market volatility persist.
• Mining sector resilience—Barrick Mining’s better-than-expected earnings underscore strong industry fundamentals at current gold prices.

This mix keeps gold’s safe-haven appeal alive, but the technical structure will determine whether the next leg is higher or lower.

Fundamental impact on Gold

• Tariff Confusion → Short-term Volatility: Last week’s rumor-driven spike and drop showcased gold’s sensitivity to policy headlines.
• Fed Rate Cut Speculation → Supportive for Bulls: Lower rates weaken the USD and bolster non-yielding assets like gold.
• Strong Miner Earnings → Confidence in Rally: Positive earnings from top producers back the sustainability of high gold prices.

Technical outlook

Gold is currently trading inside a Daily Fair Value Gap overlapping with a 4H Fair Value Gap between $3,330–$3,400. This confluence forms a strong support zone that could dictate the next directional move.

Price has already reacted off the lower boundary, but momentum remains muted as it approaches mid-range. The $3,420–$3,435 zone remains the major upside barrier to unlock further gains.

Bullish scenario: Continuation through FVG support

Gold is currently trading inside a Daily Fair Value Gap overlapping with a 4H Fair Value Gap, following a sharp decline from the $3,400+ zone. If price holds and builds structure within these FVGs, it could confirm that institutional demand is present at discount pricing.

• Bullish re-accumulation inside the FVGs (e.g., bullish engulfing, liquidity sweep, rejection wicks, range breakout).
• A clean reclaim above $3,370 to confirm short-term momentum shift, and above $3,420 to confirm breakout continuation.

Targets:

• First Target: $3,370 – minor liquidity pool
• Second Target: $3,420 – key breakout zone
• Third Target: $3,450–$3,451 – recent swing high liquidity sweep

Bearish scenario: Distribution followed by breakdown

If price fails to sustain inside the Daily/4H FVGs and starts forming lower highs beneath $3,370, it could signal that distribution is forming at premium pricing, setting up a deeper pullback toward July’s base structure.

• Breakdown through $3,334 and $3,310 (both FVG boundaries).
• Clean 4H close below $3,300 to confirm continuation.

Targets:

• First Target: $3,300 – psychological level.
• Second Target: $3,285 – near-term liquidity zone.
• Final Target: $3,265–$3,250 – deeper retracement area if macro risk diminishes.