Broad based USD selling in the Asian session pushed gold prices to a two-week high of $1239.60. Interestingly, $1239 marks the confluence of 38.2% Fib R of June 6 high - July 10 low and resistance offered by the trend line sloping upwards from Jan 27 low and Mar 10 low.
Inverse Head and Shoulders played out perfectly
As per the measured height method, the inverse head and shoulders breakout seen on July 14 had opened doors for $1240 levels. The metal has indeed rallied to $1240 and now the 1-hour RSI shows a bearish price RSI divergence.
Investors buying insurance against gold rally…
The preliminary options data for July 17 published by the CME shows the total open interest in the Put options rose 1346 contracts. The OI in the OTM Puts jumped 1395 contracts, out which an addition of 852 contracts was seen in the 1220 Put option. Meanwhile, the OI in the call options fell by 539 contracts.
The options data clearly shows that investors are seeking downside protection.
Daily chart
Resistance:
- $1239-1240
- $1248 (50-DMA + 100-DMA)
- $1250 (50% Fib)
Support
- $1232.80 (session low)
- $1229 (200-DMA)
- $1226 (23.6% Fib)
Comments
- Gold’s failure at $1239-1240 levels if followed by a break below the session low of $1232.80 would add credence to the bearish divergence on the 1-hour chart and would open doors for a drop to $1226. An end of the day close below $12226 would revive the sell-off from the high of $1296 and could yield a re-visit to $1200 levels. Moreover, a break below $1226 would mark RSI’s failure to break above 50.00 levels.
- On the higher side, only two consecutive daily closes above $1240 would revive the bullish view.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds above 1.0650 after US data
EUR/USD retreats from session highs but manages to hold above 1.0650 in the early American session. Upbeat macroeconomic data releases from the US helps the US Dollar find a foothold and limits the pair's upside.
GBP/USD retreats toward 1.2450 on modest USD rebound
GBP/USD edges lower in the second half of the day and trades at around 1.2450. Better-than-expected Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index data from the US provides a support to the USD and forces the pair to stay on the back foot.
Gold is closely monitoring geopolitics
Gold trades in positive territory above $2,380 on Thursday. Although the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds steady following upbeat US data, XAU/USD continues to stretch higher on growing fears over a deepening conflict in the Middle East.
Ripple faces significant correction as former SEC litigator says lawsuit could make it to Supreme Court
Ripple (XRP) price hovers below the key $0.50 level on Thursday after failing at another attempt to break and close above the resistance for the fourth day in a row.
Have we seen the extent of the Fed rate repricing?
Markets have been mostly consolidating recent moves into Thursday. We’ve seen some profit taking on Dollar longs and renewed demand for US equities into the dip. Whether or not this holds up is a completely different story.