Gold desk update: December structural break enters first long-term test

Daily Jan COMEX futures show a developing two-way structure as price tests acceptance following the December 25 transition

Context: Follow-up to the December 25 long-term report

This desk update follows the December 25 report, “Gold breaks long-term structure as the macro cycle transitions,” which identified a decisive break above the 4,350 extension zone on the weekly timeframe. That break marked a potential early transition into a new long-term range between 4,350 and 5,000, with cycle-based micro references at 4,470, 4,590, and 4,710, derived from the 2013–2025 structure.

At the time of that report, Gold was trading near 4,470, pressing into the lower boundary of the newly identified macro range.

This update focuses on how price has behaved since that break, using the January COMEX futures contract on the daily timeframe, with emphasis on structure, acceptance, and rotation rather than directional expectation.

Daily structure — Jan COMEX Gold futures

Following the December 25 transition, Gold extended to a high near 4,564, but failed to sustain continuation into the upper extension zone. Since that peak, price has rotated lower, establishing a clearly defined two-way structure on the daily chart rather than entering immediate expansion.

This structure is now organised around a central pivot near 4,230, which has become the key reference dividing upper and lower participation.

• The upper structure is defined by the micro 5-1 band between 4,430 and 4,290
• The lower structure is defined by the micro 5-1 band between 4,175 and 4,035

At the time of writing, Gold is trading near 4,314, roughly $250 below the recent highs, while continuing to hold above the 4,290 upper micro band.

Structurally:

• 4,290 (micro-1) and the 4,230 central pivot currently form the floor of the upper structure
• 4,230, together with micro-5 near 4,175, defines the roof of the lower structure

This configuration indicates a balanced, two-way environment, characteristic of a market testing a prior structural break rather than resolving it immediately.

Structural implications

As long as price remains accepted above the upper structure band, attention naturally shifts back toward the upper micro range between 4,327 and 4,430, with scope for a retest of prior highs should acceptance develop.

Conversely, a sustained move below the central pivot at 4,230, particularly if accompanied by continued activity below the lower band, would increase the probability of rotation toward the lower structure references between 4,133 and 4,035.

From a longer-term perspective, sustained acceptance below the central pivot would begin to shift focus back toward the previous long-term range, placing the early transition into the 4,350–5,000 macro zone under reassessment.

For that higher-range thesis to remain viable, holding above the 4,230 central pivot remains a critical structural requirement.

Desk takeaway

This is not a failure of the December structural break, but its first meaningful test.

Gold is no longer in open expansion. Instead, price is digesting the prior advance through a clearly defined daily two-way structure. How price behaves around the 4,230 pivot will likely determine whether the market continues to build acceptance toward the next long-term range or rotates back into the previous regime.

As always, structure and price behaviour, not prediction, will provide the clearest signal.

These desk updates document a structure-first process, observing how price accepts or rejects predefined levels over time.

This observation is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.