Gold: Correction is not over yet

Alexander Kuptsikevich FxPro

The strengthening of the US dollar and higher Treasury yields have brought the gold price back below $4000. Yellow metal is gradually losing its wild cards. It managed to reach a record high thanks to devaluation trading, expectations of aggressive monetary expansion by the Fed, Donald Trump's threats of 100% tariffs against China, geopolitics, pessimistic forecasts for the global economy, and active purchases of bullion by central banks.

However, the White House is no longer attacking the Fed as aggressively as before. The US and China have found common ground. The Middle East conflict has been resolved, and the global economy is proving resilient in the face of tariffs. The Fed is cautious about lowering rates, and central bank activity in the bullion market is declining.

The other two examples of similar velocity of gold rose were 1979 and 2011. The experience of those years shows that the surge and collapse were followed by long periods of consolidation. In other words, after a period of retreat from the top, the precious metal will find its trading range and settle within it. But for the weeks ahead, we continue to see more risks of further decline.

Author

Alexander Kuptsikevich

FxPro

Alexander Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro, has been with the company since its foundation. From time to time, he gives commentaries on radio and television. He publishes in major economic and socio-political media.

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