The price of gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory, hitting a new peak at 2460 USD per troy ounce on Friday. The surge in gold prices is largely driven by growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will soon reduce interest rates. This anticipation has been bolstered by recent signals from the Fed’s July meeting and weaker-than-expected US economic data.
Recent US manufacturing activity has declined sharply, and unemployment claims have reached a high of 249,000 for the year, indicating potential economic softening. These factors contribute to the speculation of a possible rate cut by the Fed as early as September, contingent on forthcoming economic reports.
Moreover, escalating tensions in the Middle East enhance gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, adding another layer of support for the rising prices.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD
On the H4 chart, XAU/USD performed a growth wave to the level of 2422.22. The market has formed a compact consolidation range around this level, and with the upside exit, the growth wave continues to the level of 2474.50. The target is local. After reaching this level, we will consider the probability of correction to 2422.22 (testing from above). Further, we expect the beginning of a new wave of growth towards 2490.90. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above the zero level and trending upwards.
On the H1 chart of XAU/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around 2446.00. With the upside exit, considering the probability of the wave continuation to the local target of 2474.50 is suggested. After reaching this level, we will consider the likelihood of correction to 2422.22. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above 80 and preparing for a decline.
Investors and traders should monitor these levels closely, as developments regarding the Fed’s forthcoming decisions and geopolitical factors could significantly impact further movements in the gold market.
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