Gold awaits CPI data as export easing and trade optimism boost outlook

Gold (XAUUSD) trades in a steady range as markets focus on the upcoming US CPI report. Reduced trade tensions between Washington and Beijing have lifted sentiment. China’s temporary easing of export restrictions has added to the positive momentum. These developments helped gold stabilize after recent weakness. Investors now await inflation data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s rate path. Softer figures may lift gold, while stronger numbers could pressure the metal.

US-China tariff truce and export relief lift Gold prices

Markets show signs of steady optimism. The extended tariff truce between Washington and Beijing has calmed geopolitical tensions. This development boosted risk sentiment and reduced safe-haven flows to the US Dollar. As a result, gold managed to find some support despite its recent pullback.

The decision by China to reduce certain export restrictions for 90 days supported market optimism. These measures created additional space for gold to stabilize and allowed buyers to regain confidence. Supportive measures from both sides have eased recent downward pressure on gold.

Attention now shifts to the upcoming US inflation data for July. The data will play a key role in shaping the Fed’s rate decisions for the rest of the year. Markets currently expect at least two cuts in 2025, while J.P. Morgan projects the possibility of four consecutive cuts starting in September. Weaker inflation could reinforce dovish Fed expectations, sending the Dollar down and gold up. Higher inflation, however, might strengthen the Dollar and put gold under pressure.

Gold eyes breakout above key resistance following strong consolidation

The gold chart below shows a solid long-term uptrend, with prices climbing along a rising curve since late 2023. This trend has seen multiple consolidation phases, each followed by bullish breakouts. The first consolidation occurred in late 2023, after which price broke higher and began a steady climb along the rising trendline.

In early and mid-2024, gold went through further consolidation periods that ended in upward breakouts. Each breakout showed strong momentum. Another consolidation pattern formed in late 2024, leading to yet another breakout toward record levels. The current setup shows a breakout attempt near $3,400, but momentum has slowed as the market awaits the CPI report for direction.

Support around $3,300 aligns with the rising orange trendline, which has repeatedly acted as a solid base during pullbacks. A break below this level could open the door to the $3,220–$3,140 zone. On the upside, resistance sits at $3,400, with a potential target of $3,800 if buyers regain control. The overall technical outlook stays positive while price holds above the primary rising support. Past patterns show that breakouts from consolidation often spark strong multi-week rallies.

Conclusion

Gold remains stable before the US CPI release. Easing trade tensions and temporary export relief from China are boosting sentiment. The market waits for inflation data to shape the Fed’s policy path. Weaker data could boost expectations for rate cuts, pressure the Dollar, and push gold higher, whereas stronger data might reverse those effects. Technically, the trend stays bullish above $3,300 support, with history favoring strong rallies after breakouts. The next move will depend on whether CPI data delivers a bullish signal or a pullback.

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