Up to March hard data was mixed: retail sales are still strong, but contrast with the weakness of industrial sector and global trade. Soft data slid again in April: manufacturing confidence remains gloomy, while services PMIs fell in DM and EM increasing concerns about contagion effects from trade and manufacturing.

  • Our BBVA-GAIN model shows a slight deceleration in global growth in 2Q19 to 0.9% from a positive 1% in 1Q19
  • The escalation of US-China trade war (tariff increases and technological disputes) could weigh markedly on China’s GDP growth if they are not reversed, and would also the US and the EZ, eventually could negatively affect the good growth performance so far this year. However, this negative impact could be offset in the short-term by further expansionary fiscal and monetary policies (mostly in China).
  • The rise in oil prices could shape headline inflation in coming months, likely delaying the expected moderation in annual rates, but core inflation should remain low as to maintain the dovish stance of central banks in a more uncertainty global outlook.

Download The Full Global Review

En ningún caso BBVA será responsable de las pérdidas, daños o perjuicios de cualquier tipo que surjan por acceder y usar el website, incluyéndose, pero no limitándose, a los producidos en los sistemas informáticos o los provocados por la introducción de virus y/o ataques informáticos. BBVA tampoco será responsable de los daños que pudieran sufrir los usuarios por un uso inadecuado de este website y, en modo alguno, de las caídas, interrupciones, ausencia o defecto en las telecomunicaciones.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD recovers post-Fed losses, awaits data

EUR/USD is trading close to 1.1050, up from the lows it fell to on Wednesday after the Fed cut rates but signaled no new moves are imminent. Markets are digesting the decision and eyeing several US figures.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD stabilizes below 1.25 ahead of UK retail sales, BOE

GBP/USD is trading below 1.25, consolidating its losses after the US Fed cut rates as expected and indicated a pause. The Bank of England is set to leave rates unchanged. Beforehand, UK retail sales are due out.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY keeps losses below 108.00 as BOJ disappoints the doves

USD/JPY keeps the losses below 108.00, as the Japanese Yen remains on the front foot in reaction to the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) status-quo that came in as a disappointment for the doves. 

USD/JPY News

Forex Today: Dollar surrenders post-Fed gains, Aussie and Bitcoin tumble, BOE in focus

The US dollar is off its highs against major pairs as markets digest the Federal Reserve's decision. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected and the dot-plot signaled no further cuts this year or the next.

Read more

Gold: Indecisive market, focus on today's close

Gold is currently trading at $1,480 per Oz, representing 0.21% drop on the day. On Wednesday, the yellow metal witnessed two-way business before ending the day with moderate losses at $1,494.

Gold News

Forex Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures