Executive Summary
LIBOR and the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which generally are highly correlated, have diverged significantly of late. Although SOFR fell sharply when the FOMC slashed its target for the fed funds rate, LIBOR has generally moved higher. The Fed's efforts to provide much needed liquidity to the banking system are helping to pull SOFR lower, as is elevated demand for ultra-safe, short-dated places to park cash in these uncertain times. But LIBOR, which is an unsecured rate, has moved higher due to concerns about the health of the financial system amid the adverse economic effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. The length of time it will take LIBOR to return to "normal" will really depend on the evolution of the pandemic, which is essentially impossible to predict presently.
SOFR and LIBOR Have Diverged Again
In a primer that we published on January 31, we noted that LIBOR will be replaced in the not-toodistant future by SOFR as the benchmark lending rate in the United States. In that primer, we wrote that there tends to be a high degree of correlation between LIBOR and SOFR, but there are times when the two rates can diverge sharply, as they did briefly in September 2019 (Figure 1). There were a few reasons why SOFR spiked higher for a few days last September, but the imbalance between the supply of Treasury securities and the level of reserves held at the Federal Reserve probably was a primary factor (Figure 2).
Source: Bloomberg LP, Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities
Excess reserves are an important source of loanable cash in the financial system, and insufficient excess reserves can cause secured rates, such as SOFR, to spike, particularly during periods when the supply of collateral (in this case, Treasury securities) surges. That is, excess demand for cash among financial institutions pushes up the borrowing costs for that cash. The Federal Reserve responded to the dislocation in secured funding markets in September by increasing excess reserves via purchases of Treasury bills, as well as conducting overnight and term repo operations on an ongoing basis.1 SOFR came back in line with LIBOR, and the two rates moved largely together in subsequent months. However, the two rates have recently diverged again (Figure 1). This time the roles have reversed, as SOFR has tumbled toward 0%, whereas 1-month LIBOR has moved about 40 bps higher since mid-March despite the 100 bps reduction in the fed funds rate that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced on March 15. What is going on?
One answer could simply be that the difference in the terms of the two rates. Since SOFR is an overnight rate and LIBOR often has a term component (e.g. 1-month or 3-month LIBOR), the two rates can diverge if markets expect the Federal Reserve to change its policy rate at some point in the near future. But pricing in the futures market implies that the Fed is unlikely to increase its policy rate at any point in the next year or two, let alone in the next few months. So, there must be something else going on to explain the divergence between SOFR and LIBOR.
SOFR has followed the target range for the fed funds rate lower in part because the banking system at present is flush with cash, in major part due to actions taken by the Federal Reserve. First, the Fed has been offering up to $500 billion in overnight repurchase operations (i.e., repos) and more than $1 trillion in repos with longer terms.2 Second, the Fed has restarted its quantitative easing (QE) program under which it buys Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from the banking system on a "permanent" basis. The combination of massive repo operations and renewed QE has caused the reserves of the banking system to jump to over $2.5 trillion on April 1 from $1.6 trillion in mid-March (Figure 2).
Third, the Federal Reserve has re-instituted its swap lines with some major central banks and it has established repo facilities for other central banks. The swap lines and the repo facilities allow foreign central banks to borrow U.S. dollars from the Fed, which they can then use to lend to commercial banks in their own economies. This increased supply of U.S. dollars to foreign financial institutions helps to depress dollar funding rates on a global basis.
In addition, investor demand for ultra-safe, short-dated assets has skyrocketed during this period of heightened uncertainty. The bid-to-cover ratio, a measure of demand for Treasury auctions, remains elevated for four-week Treasury bills, and data for the past two weeks show that money market funds that invest only in government securities saw more than $500 billion of inflows. Because Treasury repurchase agreements are inherently secured by very safe collateral, parking money in this area of the financial system has become more attractive even at low yields.
In contrast, the movement higher in LIBOR reflects, at least in part, general tensions in credit markets. As shown in Figure 3, an index that measures the yield spread of Baa-rated corporate bonds over U.S. Treasury securities has risen considerably recently. In short, investors have become concerned about the credit quality of some U.S. corporations due to the adverse economic effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Recall that LIBOR is an unsecured rate. That is, LIBOR reflects the interest rate that a bank would charge another bank for a loan on an unsecured basis. When overall credit quality starts to deteriorate, the rate that a borrower must pay a lender to borrow on an unsecured basis naturally rises.
A similar phenomenon occurred during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Although the FOMC started to cut rates in September 2007, the spread between 3-month LIBOR, an unsecured rate, and the yield on the 3-month T-Bill, widely regarded as one of the safest securities in the world, widened considerably (Figure 4). But as the Fed's programs to provide liquidity in financial markets began to take effect in late 2008, tensions in financial markets began to subside (Figure 3) and LIBOR began to decline. This so-called "TED spread" returned to normal levels by early 2009.
Where Do We Go From Here?
If the experience of the financial crisis in the past decade is any guide, then LIBOR should eventually recede toward the target range for the fed funds rate, which is currently 0.00% to 0.25%. But the length of time it will take LIBOR to return to "normal" really depends on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. If the outbreak is brought under control in the near term, then tensions in financial markets should soon subside and LIBOR will fall back to "normal" in due course. But if measures to contain the outbreak remain in place for months, then financial markets likely will remain concerned about the ability of businesses and households to remain current on their debt obligations. This in turn may raise questions about the health of the financial system, which could be reflected in continued elevated interbank rates, such as LIBOR. Under that scenario, LIBOR could remain fairly elevated relative to SOFR or the fed funds rate for an extended period of time.
In any event, there are no plans at this time to delay the eventual transition from LIBOR to SOFR as the benchmark lending rate in the United States. As shown in Figure 1, there tends to be a high correlation between SOFR and the effective fed funds rate. As we wrote in our report in January, the level of SOFR is determined largely by the monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve. In that regard, we expect that the FOMC will maintain the 0.00% to 0.25% target range for the fed funds rate for the foreseeable future. In other words, SOFR likely will remain close to 0% for quite some time.
Recently, the stock market has experienced high levels of volatility. If you are thinking about participating in fast moving markets, please take the time to read the information below. Wells Fargo Investments, LLC will not be restricting trading on fast moving securities, but you should understand that there can be significant additional risks to trading in a fast market. We've tried to outline the issues so you can better understand the potential risks. If you're unsure about the risks of a fast market and how they may affect a particular trade you've considering, you may want to place your trade through a phone agent at 1-800-TRADERS. The agent can explain the difference between market and limit orders and answer any questions you may have about trading in volatile markets. Higher Margin Maintenance Requirements on Volatile Issues The wide swings in intra-day trading have also necessitated higher margin maintenance requirements for certain stocks, specifically Internet, e-commerce and high-tech issues. Due to their high volatility, some of these stocks will have an initial and a maintenance requirement of up to 70%. Stocks are added to this list daily based on market conditions. Please call 1-800-TRADERS to check whether a particular stock has a higher margin maintenance requirement. Please note: this higher margin requirement applies to both new purchases and current holdings. A change in the margin requirement for a current holding may result in a margin maintenance call on your account. Fast Markets A fast market is characterized by heavy trading and highly volatile prices. These markets are often the result of an imbalance of trade orders, for example: all "buys" and no "sells." Many kinds of events can trigger a fast market, for example a highly anticipated Initial Public Offering (IPO), an important company news announcement or an analyst recommendation. Remember, fast market conditions can affect your trades regardless of whether they are placed with an agent, over the internet or on a touch tone telephone system. In Fast Markets service response and account access times may vary due to market conditions, systems performance, and other factors. Potential Risks in a Fast Market "Real-time" Price Quotes May Not be Accurate Prices and trades move so quickly in a fast market that there can be significant price differences between the quotes you receive one moment and the next. Even "real-time quotes" can be far behind what is currently happening in the market. The size of a quote, meaning the number of shares available at a particular price, may change just as quickly. A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive. Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading. Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. Customers should be aware that market orders for these new public companies are executed at the current market price, not the initial offering price. Market orders are executed fully and promptly, without regard to price and in a fast market this may result in an execution significantly different from the current price quoted for that security. Using a limit order can limit your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. Large Orders in Fast Markets Large orders are often filled in smaller blocks. An order for 10,000 shares will sometimes be executed in two blocks of 5,000 shares each. In a fast market, when you place an order for 10,000 shares and the real-time market quote indicates there are 15,000 shares at 5, you would expect your order to execute at 5. In a fast market, with a backlog of orders, a real-time quote may not reflect the state of the market at the time your order is received by the market maker or specialist. Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees. This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted. Online Trading and Duplicate Orders Because fast markets can cause significant delays in the execution of a trade, you may be tempted to cancel and resubmit your order. Please consider these delays before canceling or changing your market order, and then resubmitting it. There is a chance that your order may have already been executed, but due to delays at the exchange, not yet reported. When you cancel or change and then resubmit a market order in a fast market, you run the risk of having duplicate orders executed. Limit Orders Can Limit Risk A limit order establishes a "buy price" at the maximum you're willing to pay, or a "sell price" at the lowest you are willing to receive. Placing limit orders instead of market orders can reduce your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. A limit order does not guarantee your order will be executed -" however, it does guarantee you will not pay a higher price than you expected. Telephone and Online Access During Volatile Markets During times of high market volatility, customers may experience delays with the Wells Fargo Online Brokerage web site or longer wait times when calling 1-800-TRADERS. It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent. Freeriding is Prohibited Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security. Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days. Stop and Stop Limit Orders A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better. Glossary All or None (AON) A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed. Day Order A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session. Fill or Kill An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled. Good Til Canceled (GTC) An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order). Immediate or Cancel An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled. Limit Order An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases). Maintenance Call A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity. Margin Requirement Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales. Market Makers NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds. Market Order An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace. Specialists Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy. Stop An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. Stop Limit An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order. These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.
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