German exports of goods increased by 2.6% y/y in the first 7 months of 2023 compared with the same period in 2022, but one usual destination is missing: China (-8%).
Chinese-German trade relations have been increasingly imbalanced for almost two years, with imports growing faster than exports. One change, linked to the war in Ukraine, remained transitory: the EUR 18 bn rise in German imports of Chinese chemical products in 2022 (due to fears of energy shortages in Germany) did not continue in 2023 and was, for the most part, corrected by the end of July 2023.
But more structural changes also seem to be at work. A number of sectors in which China is developing its exports (and local production as a substitute for imports) saw German bilateral deficits widen during January-July 2023, particularly electrical equipment (EUR -11.2 bn compared with EUR -4 bn two years ago). This underlines the erosion of Germany’s competitive position in the face of China’s move upmarket in these areas.
In parallel, German surpluses have fallen. While the surplus in the automotive sector remains high (almost EUR 20 bn), the decline in exports is clear: their sum over 12 months peaked at EUR 30.7 bn in September 2022 and totalled just 26.3 bn in July 2023. At the same time, German imports from China rose from EUR 4 bn to EUR 6.2 bn.
So, the situation has clearly changed. While Germany’s bilateral trade deficit with China ranged generally between EUR -15 and -20 bn in the years following China’s entry into the WTO in 2001 and up to mid-2021, it is expected to more than triple in 2023. This reflects a loss of market share for Germany in Chinese imports (4.2% of Chinese imports over the last 12 months to July 2023, when they were almost 1 percentage point higher two years earlier), while the share of China in German imports has remained stable at 12% (on the same points of comparison).
BNP Paribas is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of its designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. The information and opinions contained in this report have been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does not constitute a prospectus or other offering document or an offer or solicitation to buy any securities or other investment. Information and opinions contained in the report are published for the assistance of recipients, but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by any recipient, they are subject to change without notice and not intended to provide the sole basis of any evaluation of the instruments discussed herein. Any reference to past performance should not be taken as an indication of future performance. No BNP Paribas Group Company accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. All estimates and opinions included in this report constitute our judgements as of the date of this report. BNP Paribas and their affiliates ("collectively "BNP Paribas") may make a market in, or may, as principal or agent, buy or sell securities of the issuers mentioned in this report or derivatives thereon. BNP Paribas may have a financial interest in the issuers mentioned in this report, including a long or short position in their securities, and or options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon. BNP Paribas, including its officers and employees may serve or have served as an officer, director or in an advisory capacity for any issuer mentioned in this report. BNP Paribas may, from time to time, solicit, perform or have performed investment banking, underwriting or other services (including acting as adviser, manager, underwriter or lender) within the last 12 months for any issuer referred to in this report. BNP Paribas, may to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information contained herein, or the research or analysis on which it was based, before its publication. BNP Paribas may receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from an issuer mentioned in this report. Any issuer mentioned in this report may have been provided with sections of this report prior to its publication in order to verify its factual accuracy. This report was produced by a BNP Paribas Group Company. This report is for the use of intended recipients and may not be reproduced (in whole or in part) or delivered or transmitted to any other person without the prior written consent of BNP Paribas. By accepting this document you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations. Analyst Certification Each analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report, and (ii) no part of the analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed herein. United States: This report is being distributed to US persons by BNP Paribas Securities Corp., or by a subsidiary or affiliate of BNP Paribas that is not registered as a US broker-dealer, to US major institutional investors only. BNP Paribas Securities Corp., a subsidiary of BNP Paribas, is a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member of the National Association of Securities Dealers, Inc. BNP Paribas Securities Corp. accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by another non-US affiliate only when distributed to US persons by BNP Paribas Securities Corp. United Kingdom: This report has been approved for publication in the United Kingdom by BNP Paribas London Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas London Branch is regulated by the Financial Services Authority ("FSA") for the conduct of its designated investment business in the United Kingdom and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. This report is prepared for professional investors and is not intended for Private Customers in the United Kingdom as defined in FSA rules and should not be passed on to any such persons. Japan: This report is being distributed to Japanese based firms by BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch, or by a subsidiary or affiliate of BNP Paribas not registered as a financial instruments firm in Japan, to certain financial institutions permitted by regulation. BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch, a subsidiary of BNP Paribas, is a financial instruments firm registered according to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan and a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association. BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by another non-Japan affiliate only when distributed to Japanese based firms by BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch. Hong Kong: This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch is regulated as a Licensed Bank by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and is deemed as a Registered Institution by the Securities and Futures Commission for the conduct of Advising on Securities [Regulated Activity Type 4] under the Securities and Futures Ordinance Transitional Arrangements. Singapore: This report is being distributed in Singapore by BNP Paribas Singapore Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas Singapore is a licensed bank regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore is exempted from holding the required licenses to conduct regulated activities and provide financial advisory services under the Securities and Futures Act and the Financial Advisors Act. © BNP Paribas (2011). All rights reserved.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD flirts with daily highs near 1.0950
EUR/USD now manages to regain some fresh upside traction and advances to the area of daily peaks around 1.0950 as investors continue to assess the release of higher-than-expected US inflation data.
GBP/USD clings to gains near 1.3080 on US CPI data
GBP/USD keeps its slight bullish tone unchanged around 1.3080 on the back of slight gains in the US Dollar following the firmer prints from US inflation gauged by the CPI.
Gold climbs to daily highs past $2,620 following US inflation
Gold prices remain bid in response to September’s US inflation data, which surprised to the upside according to the CPI, while US yields trade in a bearish fashion across the curve on Thursday.
Bitcoin vulnerable despite surge in stablecoin market capitalization
Bitcoin price closed below the $62,000 support on Wednesday, showing signs of weakness. CryptoQuant report shows how rising stablecoin market capitalization could be a positive sign for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
RBA widely expected to keep key interest rate unchanged amid persisting price pressures
The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to continue bucking the trend adopted by major central banks of the dovish policy pivot, opting to maintain the policy for the seventh consecutive meeting on Tuesday.
Five best Forex brokers in 2024
VERIFIED Choosing the best Forex broker in 2024 requires careful consideration of certain essential factors. With the wide array of options available, it is crucial to find a broker that aligns with your trading style, experience level, and financial goals.