German Dec Factory orders continue string of poor European data

Notes/Observations

- Germany Dec Factory Orders continues the string of disappointing European data

- RBA turned dovish as its tweaked its forward guidance to broadly balanced (previously saw the next rate move as likely higher)

Asia:

- BoJ Gov Kuroda: Economy has improved significantly since 2013; reiterates inflation to gradually accelerate to 2%

- Japan PM Abe: Recognize BoJ yet to meet [2%] price target but what is important is job growth

- RBA Gov Lowe Year Ahead speech noted that the interest rate outlook was more evenly balanced. Expected 2018 GDP a little below 3.0% but noted of large number of uncertainties, including supply of credit

Europe:

- UK Ministers said to be considering a plan that would delay Brexit to May 24th from the currently planned March 29th

- Brexit ministers looking at a plan that would keep Ireland border open. Ensured there was no need for any physical checks on the border or hard infrastructure. Instead, a tracking system monitors vehicles on designated routes as they cross from Northern Ireland to the Republic via GPS as well as number plate recognition cameras.

- ECB officials said to see no urgent need to offer new long term loans to banks. Not certain to announce any new TLTRO program at the next policy meeting in March; concerned that offering the loans could fuel perceptions that they're helping out particular lenders

Americas:

- President Trump State of Union Address (SOTU) reiterates appeal that both political parties unite for infrastructure plan. Reiterated that Americans pay too much for prescription drugs; wanted health insurance companies and drug companies to disclose real prices. Stressed that had a moral duty to create an immigration system that protected the lives and jobs of our citizens; called for more troops to be deployed at southern border. Reiterated pledge to build the border wall (Note: Trump did NOT declare a national emergency in speech) and confirmed he'll meet with North Korea leader Kim in Vietnam between Feb 27-28th - Fed's Kaplan (dove, non-voter): Economic financial uncertainties merit close watching; Highly appropriate to consider changes in balance sheet, still weighing right path for Fed balance sheet - Fed announced revisions to 2019 bank stress tests in which the sSeverely adverse unemployment test went to 10%

Energy:

- (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories: Crude: +2.5M v +2.1M prior

 

Macro

(AU) Australia: RBA Governor Lowe sparked a sell-off in AUD after seemingly dialing-back his post-policy meeting statement from yesterday, which had disappointed markets by failing to follow the Fed's dovish turn. During the speech Lowe corrected this by stating that "over the past year, the next-move-is-up scenarios were more likely than the next-move-is-down scenarios. Today, the probabilities appear to be more evenly balanced."

(DE) Germany: December factory orders fell -1.6% m/m thanks to a drop in export orders. The three month rate though still posted a rise of 0.3% q/q in Q4, a marked improvement from the -1.0% q/q in Q3. The trend in capital goods orders has been very strong, while intermediate goods as well as consumer goods orders fell in Q4.

 

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.04% at 365.14, FTSE -0.20% at 7,163.09, DAX -0.34% at 11,329.99, CAC-40 -0.16% at 5,075.44, IBEX-35 % at #, FTSE MIB +0.55% at 19,943.50, SMI -0.11% at 9,145.50, S&P 500 Futures -0.16%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices trade slightly lower across the board consolidating after sharp gains seen yesterday with earnings the key theme. Notably shares of car giant Daimler trades lower after a sharp drop in profits and dividend cut. On the banking front Dutch name ING trades higher after a top and bottom line beat, with BNP Paribas little changed after earnings. Other notable earners include Dassault Systems, Carlsberg, Barrett Development, CYBG which all trade higher on positive earnings while Tomtom, Equinor Melexis and Swedish Bank Handelsbanken all trading lower on earnings. Elsewhere Interserve trades sharply higher following an update on its deleveraging plan, while the EU did confirm they are to reject the Alstom-Siemens deal. Overnight in the US shares of Disney ticked higher on earnings; Shutterfly dropped sharply after earnings missed forecasts and the stepping down of its CEO while Electronic Arts trades 15% lower after a big miss on earnings and Rev. Looking ahead notable earners include General Motors, Eli Lily, Humana and Cummins among others.

 

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Delivery Hero [DHER.DE] +4.5% (earnings), Ocado Group [OCDO.UK] -9% (continued incident)

- Energy: Equinor [EQNR.NO] -2% (earnings; capital markets update), Uniper [UN01.DE] +1.5% (CEO and CFO to step down)

- Financials: BNP Paribas [BNP.FR] -2% (earnings; CIB transformation), Credit Suisse [CSGN.CH] -1% (tax warning), Nordea Bank [NDA.SE] -1% (earnings), ING Groep [INGA.NL] +4% (earnings), Munich Re [MUV2.DE] +2%

- Industrials: Daimler [DAI.DE] -2.5% (earnings; post earnings comments), Barratt Developments [BDEV.UK] +2.5% (earnings), Dassault Systems [DSY.FR] +8% (earnings), Victrex [VCT.UK] -3% (trading update), Metso [METSO.FI] +7.5% (earnings), Norwegian Air [NAS.NO] +6% (load factor)

- Technology: Melexis [MELE.BE] -11% (earnings)

 

Speakers

- Iceland Central Bank (Sedlabanki) Policy Statement saw inflation picking up pace in 2019 and remaining above target until H2 2020; It could call for tighter monetary stance in coming months but added that the near-term stance to depend on interaction between narrower output gap, wage-setting decisions and developments in inflation. Reiterated stance that has both the will and necessary tools to keep inflation and inflationary expectations at target over the long term. Saw GDP growth slowing markedly in 2019 citing slowdown in tourism and forecasted GDP at 1.8% (compares to 4.45 pace in 2018)

- Turkey Fin Min Albayrak: Considering a 30-year eurobond issuance

- Ukraine Central Bank Dep Gov Churiy: To cut obligatory FX revenue sale to 30%; effective Mar 1st

- Thailand Central Bank Policy Statement noted that the decision to keep policy steady was not unanimous (4-2). It reiterated its stance that current rate was appropriate for the domestic economy and the economy continued to gain traction. Still needed to monitor the financial sector risk. THB currency (Baht) was moving in-line with regional peers

 

Currencies/Fixed Income

- EUR/USD was softer by 0.2% and holding below the 1.14 level. Germany Dec Factory Orders continued the string of disappointing European data.

- AUD/USD was on track for its biggest decline in about a year after the RBA Gov Lowe tweaked the forward rate guidance to a more dovish stance. RBA now saw the rate outlook as more evenly balanced compared to the prior view that next rate move was likely to be higher.

 

Economic Data

- (DE) Germany Dec Factory Orders M/M: -1.6% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: -7.0% v -6.7%e

- (TH) Thailand Central Bank (BoT) left Benchmark Interest Rate unchanged at 1.75% (as expected)

- (CZ) Czech Dec National Trade Balance (CZK): 0.0B v -5.5Be

- (CZ) Czech Dec Industrial Output Y/Y: -1.4% v 0.0%e; Construction Output Y/Y: 3.9% v 0.0% prior

- (DE) Germany Jan Construction PMI: 50.7 v 53.3 prior

- (IS) Iceland Central Bank (Sedlabanki) left the 7-Day Term Deposit Rate at 4.50%

- (IS) Iceland Jan Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): +4.6B v -11.0B prior

- (ZA) South Africa Jan SACCI Business Confidence: 95.1 v 95.2 prior

**Fixed Income Issuance**

- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) opened its book to sell 30-year BTP bond via syndicate; guidance seen +20-22bps

- (IN) India sold total INR100B vs. INR100B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills

- (ID) Indonesia sold total IDR10.12T vs. IDR8.0T target in 6-month, Islamic Bills; 2-year, 4-year, 15-year and 30-year bonds

- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK2.86B in 2020 and 2029 DGB bonds

- (SE) Sweden sold SEK5.0B in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.4559% v -0.4652% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.04x v 2.08x prior

 

Looking Ahead

- (SE) Sweden Debt Agency chief Olofsson

- 05:30 (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) to sell €625M in 13-Week Bills; Avg Yield: % v 0.67% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 1.83x prior

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Q4 Unemployment Rate: No est v 6.7% prior

- 06:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 1.50%

- 06:00 (RU) Russia to sell RUB35B in 2026 and 2034 OFZ bonds

- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Feb st: No est v -3.0% prior

- 07:00 (UK) Weekly PM May question time in House of Commons

- 07:00 (FI) Finland Govt responds to Opposition party No-Confidence Motion

- 08:00 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index

- 08:20 (BR) Brazil Jan Vehicle Production: No est v 177.7K prior; Vehicle Sales: 234.5K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 31.7K prioir

- 08:30 (US) Nov Trade Balance: -$54.0Be v -$55.5B prior

- 08:30 (US) Q4 Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity 1.7%e v 2.3% prior; Unit Labor Costs: 1.7%e v 0.9% prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec Building Permits M/M: -1.0%e v +2.6% prior

- 08:35 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Dep Gov Lane

- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Consumer Confidence Index: 104.4e v 108.6 prior

- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 142.0K prior

- 09:30 (NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction

- 10:00 (CA) Canada Jan Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj): No est v 59.7 prior; PMI (unadj): No est v 48.2 prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico weekly International Reserves data

- 10:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank Gov Glapinski to hold post rate decision press conference

- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $50B in 18-day CMB

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $27B in 10-Year Notes Reopening

- 15:20 (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BCB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leaves Selic Target Rate unchanged at 6.50%