GDPNow Forecast Dips to 2.4%: Looking Ahead

Mike “Mish” Shedlock's Sitka Pacific Capital Management,Llc

Following this mornings retail sales report, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model for 4th quarter 2016 GDP dipped to 2.4% from 2.6%.

Latest forecast: 2.4 percent — December 14, 2016

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.4 percent on December 14, down from 2.6 percent on December 9. The forecast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.3 percent to 2.1 percent after this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The New York Fed Nowcast has not been updated since December 2. Last Friday was embargoed on account of today’s FOMC meeting. Such silliness. The Atlanta Fed has no embargo.

More Reports

On Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed and Empire Fed regional reports come out. Nowcast takes those into consideration, but GDPNow doesn’t.

Also on Thursday, the Manufacturing Flash PMI is released.

On Friday, housing starts data is released, so there is plenty of room for both modes to change.

I will take a stab that the FRBNY Nowcast dips slightly below GDPNow following reports this week.

Author

Mike “Mish” Shedlock's

Sitka Pacific Capital Management,Llc

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