GBPUSD: 1.4205
GbpUsd initially traded up to 1.4314 on Wednesday ahead of the CPI figure, which missed expectations, sending Cable sharply lower on the back of the recent underperforming data, in both wages on Tues and CPI today, which has caused a rethink of BoE hike resolve. The UK Retail Sales are due today and a soft number could put another dent in the prospect of a BOE May hike, (exp 0.2%mm, 1.1%yy; Ex-Fuel -1.7%mm, +2.0%yy).
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower
Daily Indicators: Turning lower?
Weekly Indicators: Turning higher?
Preferred Strategy: Cable seems to have put in a medium term top for now, and with the momentum indicators generally pointing a bit lower, we could now be in for a retest of the 1.4173 session lows, below which would allow a run towards 1.4120 and possibly to 1.4050 although that remains some way off.
On the topside, sellers will arrive today at 1.4215 and then again at 1.4275 ahead of 1.4300.
Further out, if we do take out 1.4315 we could then revisit 1.4375 above which we are left looking at a test of 1.44/1.45, and there is then little to stop a run at the post-Brexit high 1.5022 although that is now a long way off.
Take a nimble stance today, but technically is does appear that further downside pressure may come about.
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.4376 | 17 Apr high | 1.4200 | Minor |
| 1.4310 | Minor | 1.4172 | Session low |
| 1.4275 | 100 HMA | 1.4150 | Minor |
| 1.4245 | Minor | 1.4120 | (38.2% of 1.3710/1.4376) |
| 1.4215 | 200 HMA | 1.4100 | Minor |
Economic data highlights will include:
UK Retail Sales
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