Market Recap
Market Recap |
% |
Close Price |
USDTRY |
1.96% |
3.8870 |
WTI Crude Oil (Jan.2018) |
0.78% |
57.04 |
USDCHF |
0.38% |
0.9891 |
EURUSD |
-0.41% |
1.1778 |
EURO STOXX 50 |
-0.61% |
3,562.00 |
Natural Gas |
-1.14% |
2.684 |
Prices as of previous day instrument closing.
-
The Swiss National Bank kept interest on sight deposits at -0.75% and will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary. The SNB is expecting the inflation rate at 2.1% in the third quarter 2020, thus, as Jordan stated, the SNB won`t raise rate for relatively long time. The BoE left rates unchanged and the MPC expect that inflation will decline to its 2% target in the medium term. November inflation, at 3.1%, was above the target and modest interest rate increases are expected the next year to protect real salaries and savings as UK living standards deteriorated after the Brexit. The ECB also kept rates unchanged and became more confident on its growth expectations. The inflation rate is expected at 1.4% on 2018 thus the dovish monetary policy approach adopted by Draghi will not have material changes on rate policy for a significant amount of time, albeit from January next year and September that monthly purchases of bonds will be halved to €30bn a month.
-
US indices slid on Thursday as the DJIA lost 76.77 points or 0.31% to 24,508.86 and the S&P500 lost 0.41% or 10.84 points to 2,652.01. Nasdaq Composite slid 0.28% or 19.27 points to 6,856.52. European indices closed in negative territory as well, as the Euro Stoxx 50 slid 25.53 points or 0.71% to 3,556.22 and the DAX lost 57.56 points or 0.44% to 13,068 points.
-
In the FX market EURUSD slid 0.40% to 1.1778 and GBPUSD closed at 1.3431, up 0.08%. USDJPY slid 0.13% to 112.39 while USDCHF rose 0.38% to 0.9891.
-
Gold dropped 0.20% to 1,252.96 $/oz and Silver lost ground as well at 15.80 $/oz, down 1.11%.
Chart of the day
GBPUSD (daily chart)
The rate is still in a medium term bullish channel but it is off its 2017 top 1.3657. Weakness on GBPUSD was seen since the beginning of this month as the rate started to make lower highs, but technically the rate is on the middle of its channel, thus are more likely short term set ups than strategic positions, that will materialize when the rate will reach either the lower or the higher side of the channel.
Economic Calendar
Friday December 15, 2017 CET Time |
Forecast |
Previous |
||
|
|
EU Summit (14-15 Dec) |
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
Trade Balance s.a. (Oct) |
24.3B |
25.0B |
11:30 |
RUB |
Bank of Russia Rate Decision |
8.00% |
8.25% |
13:00 |
GBP |
BOE Quarterly Bulletin |
|
|
14:30 |
CAD |
Manufacturing Sales (Oct; MoM) |
0.9% |
0.5% |
14:30 |
USD |
Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Dec) |
18.8 |
19.4 |
15:15 |
USD |
Industrial Production (Nov; MoM) |
0.3% |
0.9% |
Quadruple witching takes place today. Trading volume is likely to increase in the last hour of the NY session as futures and options on stock market indices and single stocks simultaneously expire. Eurozone’s seasonally adjusted trade balance is forecasted to decrease to a surplus of 24.3bln in October. The Bank of Russia is likely to cut rates by another 25bps to 8% as the 2.5% YoY inflation is well below the target of 4%. The decision is scheduled for 11:30 CET and is followed by a press conference from CBR governor Nabiullina. In the afternoon, Canadian manufacturing sales are forecasted to rise 0.9% month-over-month from 0.5%. The Empire State manufacturing index for December is expected to decline to 18.8. Both are released at 14:30 CET. US industrial production at 15:15 CET, forecasted to rise 0.3% in November from 0.9%, rounds up the week.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD (Daily timeframe)
EURUSD found resistance against its short term supply line. A breakout should lift the rate to 1.1930 and then to 1.20. Below 1.1724 the pair should test 1.1680.
EURCHF (Daily timeframe)
The rate went up only 1 day out of 6 session and the lower side of the channel will be the most relevant short term test. Beneath this level the rate could drop to 1.14 and then near its 200 daily MA, near 1.12. Above 1.1372, its 2017 high, EURCHF could rise to test its higher side of the channel, but the static level 1.20 is the most relevant resistance.
DAX Index (Daily timeframe)
The index reduced its volatility and in case of a bullish breakout it may test 13,300 and its record high 13,525. Below 13,000 DAX could retrace to 12,900 and then to 12,500, its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the bullish wave started last August that ended in November.
XAGUSD (Daily timeframe)
Silver it may develop a short term range between the triple bottom it made at 15.60 $/oz and the most recent high 16.12. Beneath the most recent low the commodity could test 15.18 while above 16.12 there could be a rally to 16.5.
The information provided in this document is marketing communication and does not contain investment advice. ALB Forex Trading Ltd. will not accept any liability for any loss or damage which may arise from the use of such information. There is a high level of risk involved with trading leveraged products such as forex and CFDs. You should not risk more than you can afford to lose. You should not trade unless you fully understand the true extent of your exposure to the risk of loss. When trading, you must always take into consideration your level of experience. It is the responsibility of the Client to ensure that the Client can accept the Services and/or enter into the Transactions in the country in which the Client is resident. If the risks involved seem unclear to you, please seek independent advice. ALB Forex Trading Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the Malta Financial Service Authority (License No: IS/79767). Our registered address is 48, Casa Roma, Sir Augustus Bartolo Street, XBX 1099. Ta`Xbiex, Malta. Tel: +356 2371 6000.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds above 0.6500 in thin trading
The Australian Dollar managed to recover ground against its American rival after AUD/USD fell to 0.6484. The upbeat tone of Wall Street underpinned the Aussie despite broad US Dollar strength and tepid Australian data.
EUR/USD comfortable below 1.0800 lower lows at sight
The EUR/USD pair lost ground on Thursday and settled near a fresh March low of 1.0774. Strong US data and hawkish Fed speakers comments lead the way ahead of the release of the US PCE Price Index on Friday.
Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $2,200
Gold retreats from daily highs but holds comfortably above $2,200 in the American session on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays near 4.2% after upbeat US data and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to gather further bullish momentum.
Google starts indexing Bitcoin addresses
Bitcoin address data is live on Google search results after users realized on Thursday that the tech giant started indexing Bitcoin blockchain data. However, mixed reactions have followed the tech giant's reversed stance on the cryptocurrency.
A Hollywood ending for fourth quarter GDP
The latest revisions put Q4 GDP at 3.4%, the second fastest quarterly growth rate in two years. Much of the upside was attributable to stronger consumer spending, yet fresh profits data affirmed it was a good quarter for the bottom line as well with profits up by the most since the Q2-2022.