GBP/USD traders eye core PCE and Fed commentary for clues on policy path

The GBP/USD pair enters the day in consolidation mode as markets brace for key U.S. data and Fed commentary. The spotlight is on the May Core PCE Price Index—set for release at 12:30 pm GMT—which could reinforce, or challenge current rate cut expectations. Forecasts call for a 0.1% monthly and 2.6% annual rise, matching April’s figures. As the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, any deviation could ripple through currency markets.

Economic data releases

• Core PCE Price Index (May) releases at 12:30 pm GMT (07:30 am EDT). Forecasts: +0.1% m/m, +2.6% y/y, matching April Fed Speeches & Events

• Fed Governor Michael Barr speaking at Cleveland Fed Policy Summit (~1:15 pm EDT), then again ~4:00 pm EDT on community development/regional policy
• Ongoing "Fed Listens" virtual events—Fed’s Adriana Kugler delivered remarks recently Key Takeaways

• The PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. A hotter print may delay rate cuts; a softer one supports expectations for earlier easing.
• Commentary from Barr and Kugler may shed light on Fed philosophy—especially concerning balance sheet strategy or inflation outlook.

GBP/USD market context recap

The chart is showing alternating phases of Accumulation (red), Manipulation (green), and Distribution (blue).

The most recent structure was an Accumulation zone followed by a breakout higher.

Wyckoff analysis

• Price is breaking into a markup phase after the last green “Manipulation” zone.
• Support was successfully tested around the 1.3570–1.3610 level, where price consolidated before moving up.
• Near-term plan is to look for re-accumulation setups (smaller red boxes) before further markup.
• Key Support: 1.3610 is the most recent area of interest for a potential buy setup if tested.

ICT concepts applied

• Recent green box indicates a stop-run of retail lows followed by a price reversal upward.
• Watch for price to fill any Fair Value Gaps between 1.3570–1.3600 as a discounted buy entry.
• Time-of-day concepts: London session highs at 1.3735 have already been challenged, so New York Session could look for a dip into discounted pricing before another move higher.

Trading plan for the day

• Look to buy on pullbacks into the green “Manipulation” zone (~1.3600–1.3570).
• Stop-loss: below the last swing low (~1.3542).
• Target 1: Prior swing high at 1.3860.
• Target 2: 1.3980 as next objective based on Gann and Fibo cone projections.
• Extended target if momentum continues: 1.4080+.

The structure is bullish with an intact markup phase after a successful stop-hunt. Waiting for pullbacks into key levels with ICT fair value gaps and Gann retracement zones provides the highest-probability long setup. Further upside is projected if these levels hold into the New York session. Let me know if you’d also like a visual markup of this setup.