GBP/USD
The outlook on Cable remains as choppy as ever. A recent three week trend lower has now been broken as the market has rebounded from the $1.2840 low last week. However, this latest rebound that has once again scuppered any sense of traction, is struggling to build on its own recovery momentum. The rebound is now encountering a confluence of barriers with a batch of faltering moving averages, psychological resistance at $1.3000 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (of $1.2195/$1.3515) at $1.3010. It is also notable that given the jagged configuration of the rally (again the market is stuttering lower today), there is little real traction through momentum indicators either. The MACD lines are flat, whilst RSI and Stochastics are again around their neutral points where the mid-February rally faltered. The important resistance to now watch is the lower high at $1.3070. Unless this barrier can be overcome, there will be a building run of lower highs. Initial resistance is at yesterday’s high of $1.3017. The hourly chart shows that moving clear below $1.2980 (an old near term pivot) would see the move deteriorate again. Below $1.2950 opens $1.2885.
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