GBP/USD hits lows: Weak UK data and a strong Dollar weigh on the Pound

RoboForex Analysis Department RoboForex

The GBP/USD pair dropped to 1.3252, its lowest level since 11 May 2025, as a resurgent US dollar and disappointing UK economic data weighed on the pound.

Market sentiment has shifted from concerns about inflation to fears of an economic slowdown, while optimism surrounding new trade agreements has bolstered the dollar.

Although warmer weather boosted food sales, the broader economic outlook remains fragile after worse-than-expected PMI figures. This has reinforced expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) could cut interest rates by 25 basis points as early as August, with another potential reduction before year-end to stimulate growth.

Meanwhile, the dollar gained strength following the announcement of a US-EU trade deal, which imposes 15% tariffs on most European exports, including cars. The agreement has averted a further escalation in trade tensions, providing additional support for the greenback.

However, not all European leaders view the deal as favourable. Many argue that the terms disproportionately disadvantage the EU. While the UK maintains its separate agreements, the broader economic ripple effects are still being felt, given the interconnected nature of global markets.

Technical analysis: GBP/USD

Four-hour chart

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD continues its downward trajectory towards 1.3152, with a consolidation range currently forming around 1.3268. A downside breakout from this range could see the pair extend losses towards 1.3152, followed by a potential corrective rebound to 1.3370. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains below zero and points sharply downward.

One-hour chart

On the hourly chart, the pair declined to 1.3225 before correcting to 1.3270. Further downside movement towards 1.3152 is anticipated today, with the Stochastic oscillator confirming this outlook: its signal line has crossed below 80 and is trending downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The pound remains under pressure amid a stronger dollar and a lacklustre UK economic performance. With rate cut expectations mounting and global trade dynamics shifting, further volatility in GBP/USD is likely. Traders will be watching key technical levels for confirmation of the next directional move.

Author

RoboForex Analysis Department

RoboForex

RoboForex Analysis Department provides timely market insights, expert technical analysis, and actionable forecasts across forex, commodities, indices, and equities.

GBP/USD hits multi-week tops around 1.3560

GBP/USD gathers fresh steam and advances to new three-month peaks near the 1.3560 zone on Friday. Cable’s sharp move higher comes after three daily drops in a row and follows the increasing selling pressure hurting the Greenback.

EUR/USD pops to fresh two-month highs, targets 1.1600

EUR/USD advances markedly, revisiting the upper 1.1500s for the first time since mid-June. The pair’s sharp uptick comes on the back of a strong retracement in the US Dollar amid BoJ intervention chatter and despite steady uncertainty in the Middle East.

Gold picks up pace, approaches $4,400

Gold rebounds toward the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Friday, reversing the previous day’s pullback. The precious metal’s recovery comes as fresh and intense weakness keep weighing on the US Dollar, while traders keep assessing easing expectations of an imminent Fed interest rate hike and the situation from the Middle East.

Pi Network Price Forecast: PI extends consolidation as bulls eye $0.10

Pi Network (PI) price holds steady on Friday, maintaining a consolidating tone for three consecutive days. Mild retail strength in the PI token remains stable, with Open Interest above $9 million, while social buzz eases. PI token’s technical outlook is mixed, as bearish momentum wanes to neutral, with bulls eyeing the $0.1000 psychological level.

Weekly focus: Some relief in US inflation concerns

Actual inflation data for July came out as expected with a 0.1% m/m increase in headline CPI and 0.2% excluding food and energy. Annual headline inflation remains too high at 3.4% and means that wage earners are experiencing stagnating spending power at best, and core inflation is a bit higher than the inflation target of two percent would suggest.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.