Softer start to the week for risk assets GLD, SLV, BTC but US equity FUTs steady

Asia market update: Subdued trading on low liquidity amid holidays; JP GDP underwhelms while THD GDP surprises higher; Softer start to the week for risk assets GLD, SLV, BTC but US equity FUTs steady.

General trend and developments

- Quiet trading amid constrained liquidity with the start of China Lunar New Year holidays. Several countries on holiday for a few days and Chinese markets not trading again until Tuesday, Feb 24th.

- Global yields today overall followed softer US CPI on Friday, with US 2-year yield falling to the lowest level since Sept 2022, and the 10-year benchmark rate moved back towards 4%. This helped crypto continue to recover over the weekend. before falling back again Sunday night, with Bitcoin down from nearly a $71K high back to threaten the $68K handle.

- Spot Silver slid -3.0% in Asian Monday trading, piercing below <$75/oz with Spot Gold -1.4% to $4,974/oz.

- Japan’s prelim GDP growth for Q4 disappointingly weak, only just avoiding a technical q/q recession, as PM Takaichi’s govt looks to leverage its election mandate into higher growth. Yen a touch weaker following the release in light trading.

- Thailand, the laggard of South-East Asian economies in recent times, today saw significantly higher than expected GDP growth in Q4 and also raised its projections for 2026 growth. Thailand bourse +1.2% to its highest since Dec, 2024.

- Japan junior ruling coalition Ishin party Leader Yoshimura agreed that Japan should proceed with 2-year suspension of food sales tax ASAP, while also being open to the BOJ raising rates higher due to the current weak Yen.

- Japan yield curve steepened slightly with short-end down and 10-year benchmark hitting one-month lows at 2.20% while long-end up 3-4bps.

- Softer Kiwi dollar after a drop in Jan card spending, while RBNZ survey of households saw 2-year inflation expectations fall to significantly to 3.4% (prior 4.3%). NZIER Shadow Board recommended that the Reserve Bank keep the OCR on hold this Wed.

- US Pentagon threatens to cut off its relationship with AI powerhouse Anthropic over the company's insistence that some limitations be maintained on how the military uses its AI models.

- [Note: European leaders seemed excited/relieved at US Sec of State Rubio’s address to the annual Munich Security Conference, even receiving a standing ovation after underling the importance of the US-EU relationship. However, a dispassionate analysis shows essentially the same message that JD Vance initially delivered to Europe at the same conference a year ago, delivered this time with some niceties around US-EU historical and cultural connections by Rubio. Nevertheless, the same US warnings to the EU still hold from Rubio around mass immigration, suppression of free speech and suppressive electioneering, inadequate energy and military capabilities and industrial hollowing out. Perhaps the shock value of JD Vance’s initial delivery of this message a year ago still remains in the memory.].

- This week significant data out of the US includes FOMC Minutes on Wed, US Advance Q4 GDP and US PCE for Dec & Q4 on Friday. SCOTUS may rule on IEEPA tariffs as early as Friday. Global S&P PMIs also due out this week.

- Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) OCR rate decision and quarterly statement on Wed, Feb 18th (first decision with new Gov Brenan from Sweden’s Riksbank). Expected to hold. (a 25bps hike not fully priced in until Oct, 2026).

- Other Asia rate decisions this week include the Philippines (BSP, expected to cut by 25bps) and Indonesia (BI expected to hold), (Romania Central Bank also expected to hold).

- Note that for the S&P 500 74% have now released results, and of those about ¾ have reported EPS and Revenues above estimates. Y/Y earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for this reporting period currently stands at 13.2%.

- US equity FUTs +0.1% to +0.2% during Asia trading; [Note that US cash markets for equities and bonds will be closed on Monday due to President’s Day holiday].

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using Asian time zone)

- Mon Feb 16th (Mon night EU Dec Industrial Production, CN Jan FDI, IN Jan Trade Balance).

-Tue Feb 17th RBA Meeting Minutes, UK Dec Unemployment, (Tue night CA Jan CPI).

- Wed Feb 18th JP Jan Trade Balance, NZ RNBZ Rate Decision, UK Jan CPI, (Wed night US Nov & Dec Housing Starts, US Dec Durable Goods, US FOMC Minutes).-Thu Feb 19th AU Jan Jobs, JP Dec Machine Orders, PH BNP Rate Decision, ID Rate Decision, (Thu night CA Dec Balance of Trade, Dec Balance of Trade).

- Fri Feb 20th NZ Trade Balance, JP Jan CPI, S&P Global PMIs day, UK Jan Retail Sales, (Fri night US Q4 Adv GDP, US Dec Core PCE).

Holidays in Asia this week

- Mon 16th China, (Hong Kong open for morning trading only), Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan, USA, Vietnam.

- Tue 17th China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam.

- Wed 18th China, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam.

- Thu 19th China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Vietnam.

- Fri 20th China, Taiwan, Vietnam.

[** Note: China markets reopen from Tue, Feb 24th).

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens +0.4% at 8,953.

- New Zealand Jan Total Card Spending M/M: -0.7% v -1.3% prior.

- New Zealand Jan Performance Services Index: 50.9 v 51.7 prior - update.

- NZIER: Shadow Board recommends that the Reserve Bank keep the OCR on hold in Feb.

- New Zealand Treasury: Jobs data suggests labour market is 'improving' - financial press.

- RBNZ: Mean Household 2-year inflation expectations fall to 3.4% (prior 4.3%).

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng opens -0.2% at 26,501 (to close early for Lunar New Year holiday); Shanghai Composite closed for holiday.

- Bytedance: Follow up: Co reportedly to curb its AI video app "SeeDance 2.0" after Disney legal threat - BBC.

- China reportedly succeeds in landing reusable booster rocket in South China Sea - Ars Technica [overnight update].

Japan

- Nikkei 225 opens +0.4 at 57,219.

-JAPAN Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.1% V 0.4%E; GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 0.2% V 1.6%E.

- Japan Dec Final Industrial Production M/M: -0.1% v -0.1% prelim; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.6% prelim.

- Japan Econ Min Kiuchi: Japan's economy continues to recover "moderately" (comments post weaker than expected prelim Q4 GDP figures).

- Japan junior ruling coalition Ishin party Leader Yoshimura: Japan should proceed with 2-year suspension of food sales tax at earliest date possible - financial press.

- Japan PM Takaichi’s cabinet approval rating holds firm following election win at 72% - FNN.

Korea

- Kospi closed for holiday.

Other Asia

- Thailand Q4 GDP Q/Q: 1.9% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 1.3%e.

- Thailand bourse +1.2% to 1,447, highest since Dec 12th, 2024 (follows stronger-than-expected Q4 and 2025 GDP figures).

- Singapore Jan Non-oil Domestic Exports Y/Y: 9.3% v 12.0%e.

- Philippines Dec Overseas Workers Cash Remittances: $3.5B v $2.9B prior; Y/Y: 4.2% v 3.6% prior.

North America

- (US) Texas venture-backed startup Hertha Metals promises to mass produce steel with 25% cost savings - MIT News (update).

- Pentagon threatens to cut off relationship with Anthropic over the company's insistence that some limitations be maintained on how the military uses its AI models - press [weekend update].

- (US) Trump: The additional aircraft carrier will be heading to Gulf region shortly; Iran has to give us the right deal, we don't want any enrichment [weekend update].

Europe

- (IR) Follow up: Pres. Trump reportedly told Israel PM Netanyahu during Florida meeting in Dec 2025 that he would support Israeli strikes on Iran's ballistic missile program if the US and Iran could not reach a deal - CBS News, citing sources (update).

-ECB Chief Lagarde: Pres Trump's "kick in the butt" has brought European leaders closer together; Preparing for geoeconomic fragmentation - financial press (update).

- December Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) +1.0 v -2.9 m/m [weekend update].

- (UR) US Sec State Rubio: We don't know if Russia is serious about finding an end to the war in Ukraine; They say they are; We're going to continue to test it [weekend update].

- (RU) France Foreign Min Barrot: Some G7 nations have expressed a willingness to move ahead with a maritime services ban of Russian oil [weekend update].

- UK and European allies reportedly considering ways to tighten curbs on Russian economy including potentially seizing shadow fleet ships - press [weekend update].

- (EU) Commission Pres Von Der Leyen: We face the very distinct threat of outside forces trying to weaken our union [weekend update].

Levels as of 00:20 ET

Nikkei 225 +0.2%; ASX 200 +0.2%; Hang Seng +0.5%; Shanghai Composite closed; Kospi closed;

Equity S&P500 Futures +0.2%; Nasdaq100 +0.1%; DAX +0.1%; FTSE100 +0.2%.

EUR 1.1875-1.1859; JPY 153.25-152.64; AUD 0.7098-0.7058; NZD 0.6041-0.6026.

Gold -1.1% at $4,986/oz; BTC -2.5% at $68,545, Crude Oil +0.1% at $62.63/bbl; Copper -0.8% at $5.7555/lb.