GBP/USD Forecast: Ready to move up? Moderna's jabs serve as a boost, the Fed poses a risk

GBP/USD has been bouncing from the lows as the dollar falls with yields.
The UK's vaccine expansion may support sterling, while the Fed's minutes mean uncertainty.
Wednesday's four-hour chart is showing the pair bounced off uptrend support.

Yohay Elam FXStreet

And then there were three – Moderna's vaccinations are joining those by Pfizer/BioNTech and AstraZeneca in Britain's battle against COVID-19. The UK already seems to have a lid over the spread of the disease – contrary to France which is under a strict lockdown and Germany, which is about to enter one. The deployment of the new inoculation is set to help contain the spread and reach more people. It also implies the potential for a quicker reopening.

However, GBP/USD depends heavily on movements in US yields. After cable bulls took profits on Tuesday, the fall in returns on American Treasuries helps sterling recover. Investors await President Joe Biden's speech on the infrastructure program, which has higher chances of passing after the Senate parliamentarian ruled it can pass via reconciliation, a quicker process.If the US grows faster, the rest of the world may benefit.

Demands from conservative Democrat Joe Manchin to keep the corporate tax at 25% is music to investors' ears – and may push the safe-haven dollar down.

On the other hand, optimism from the Federal Reserve poses a risk to GBP/USD gains. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes may show more members are warming up to raising interest rates sooner rather than later – and that could boost the greenback.

See FOMC Minutes March 16-17 Preview: Growth without inflation?

All in all, the virus situation is improving on both sides of the Atlantic, and the tug of war is yet to end. The pound may have the upper hand on Wednesday.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

Pound/dollar has lost upside momentum on the four-hour chart but has managed to recapture the 50 and 100 Simple Movign Averages, a bullish sign. As the graph shows, the price held above the uptrend support line which accompanies cable since late March.

Some resistance awaits at 1.3855, a swing high from last week, followed only by the April peak of 1.3920. Further above, 1.3960 and 1.40 are eyed.

The first cushion is at 1.3755, where the uptrend support line hits the price. It is followed by 1.3740, and then by 1.37.

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

AUD/USD turns south toward 0.6900 as USD firms up

AUD/USD sees fresh selling and drops toward 0.6900 in late Asian trading on Monday, as renewed US Dollar strength weighs on the pair amid lingering Middle East and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions. Focus remains on Oil prices, Treasury bond yields, and RBA expectations for fresh trading impetus in the major.

USD/JPY retakes 158.00 amid hawkish BoJ bets, firmer USD

USD/JPY erases losses and retakes 158.00 in the Asian session on Monday, trading within a one-week-old range. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin the US Dollar, despite fading Fed rate hike hopes, supporting the pair's rebound. However, further upside could be capped by hawkish BoJ expectations and looming intervention risks that could support the Japanese Yen.

Gold languishes below $4,200 amid high US yields

Gold trims some losses on Monday, but remains trapped within previous ranges, with upside attempts limited below $4,200 and with two-month lows of $4,110 at a short distance. The recent pullback on the US Dollar Index has provided some support for precious metals although the high US Treasury yields are keeping a floor on US Dollar dips so far.

Pi Network risks a steeper decline as bearish momentum builds

Pi Network extends losses below $0.090 maintaining a steady decline for the fifth consecutive day. The retail demand remains firm, with the notional value of active perpeutals holding above $10 million. The technical outlook for PI remains bearish as bearish momentum mounts.

ISM Services PMI expected to show robust US economy in September

The US ISM Services PMI is expected to improve marginally in September. The US services sector is expected to remain well into expansionary territory. Bets of further Fed tightening appear to have lost traction in the last few days.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.