GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling bulls take over as focus shifts to Powell
- GBP/USD trades at a weekly high near 1.3600 on Tuesday.
- Improving market mood on the Iran-Israel ceasefire supports the pair's climb.
- Markets await comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
After falling to its weakest level in a month early Monday, GBP/USD made a sharp U-turn and ended the day decisively higher. The pair preserves its bullish momentum and trades near 1.3600 in the European session on Tuesday as market focus shifts to Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.
British Pound PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -1.15% | -1.40% | -1.17% | -0.28% | -1.11% | -1.18% | -0.71% | |
| EUR | 1.15% | -0.28% | 0.02% | 0.89% | 0.00% | -0.03% | 0.40% | |
| GBP | 1.40% | 0.28% | 0.35% | 1.17% | 0.28% | 0.26% | 0.69% | |
| JPY | 1.17% | -0.02% | -0.35% | 0.88% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.38% | |
| CAD | 0.28% | -0.89% | -1.17% | -0.88% | -0.79% | -0.91% | -0.49% | |
| AUD | 1.11% | -0.00% | -0.28% | -0.02% | 0.79% | -0.05% | 0.40% | |
| NZD | 1.18% | 0.03% | -0.26% | -0.04% | 0.91% | 0.05% | 0.43% | |
| CHF | 0.71% | -0.40% | -0.69% | -0.38% | 0.49% | -0.40% | -0.43% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
News of Iran and Israel agreeing to a ceasefire helped the market mood improve late Monday and caused the US Dollar (USD) to come under heavy selling pressure. As risk flows continue to dominate the financial markets on Tuesday, the USD struggles to find demand and allows GBP/USD to continue to stretch higher. At the time of press, US stock index futures were rising between 0.7% and 1.2% on the day, while the USD Index was down about 0.25%.
After delivering the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report, Fed Chairman Powell will respond to questions. Investors will scrutinize Powell's comments for fresh hints on the timing of the next rate cut.
In an interview with CNBC last Friday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that the Fed is in a position to cut the policy rate as early as July, arguing that they should not wait for the job market to crash to ease the policy. On a similarly dovish note, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Monday that she would be in favour of lowering the policy rate at the next meeting, if inflation pressures were to stay contained.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 20% probability of a rate cut in July. In case Powell leaves the door open for a policy move next month, the USD could weaken further with the immediate reaction, triggering another leg higher in GBP/USD. Conversely, the USD could stage a rebound and cause the pair to correct lower if Powell opposes the view of a July rate cut by repeating that they need more data before deciding on the next policy move.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart edges higher but remains below 70, suggesting that GBP/USD has more room on the upside before turning technically overbought. On the upside, 1.3630 (static level) aligns as the next resistance level before 1.3700 (static level, round level) and 1.3740 (static level).
Looking south, support levels could be spotted at 1.3580 (static level), 1.3530 (100-period Simple Moving Average) and 1.3500 (static level, round level).
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
