Morning briefing: EUR/USD need to see a confirm break past 1.1800 to bring higher levels

The Dollar Index has resistance coming near 98.25. Need to see whether it holds and pushes the index to 97-96 or takes it higher. EURUSD need to see a confirm break past 1.18 to bring higher levels into picture, else a dip towards 1.17–1.16 looks likely. EURINR has bounced from support and can rise towards 107. EURJPY & USDJPY can remain range bound between 182-186 & 154-158 region for some time. USDCNY has risen from the support near 7.00 but whether the rise sustains or not will have to be seen. Aussie is rising towards 0.68 before a possible reversal. Pound can attempt to rise towards 1.36 while it trades above 1.3450. USDINR can trade within 89.50-90.25 region.

Watch crucial supports coming up on the US Treasury yields near 4.10% (10Yr) and 4.80% (30Yr). A break below supports, if seen can take the yields towards 4.05% and 4.75% this week before a rebound is seen later. The German yields have moved up well and can target 2.95/3% (10yr) and 3.55/3.6% (30yr) soon. The Indian 10Yr GOI did rise on Friday after the initial decline seen earlier last week. While above support at 6.50%, the yield can have some scope for a rise towards 6.6-6.65% in the coming days.

The Dow is expected to trade within 48000-49000 for now before eventually breaking higher while Dax has resistance near 24400 and 25000 below which trade could be subdued. Nifty has support at 26000 and lower at 25800 above which there can be decent chances of a rise towards 26300-26600 in the next few weeks. Nikkei and Shanghai also look bullish and could have room for a rise towards 52000 and 4100-4200 respectively in Jan-26.

Brent and WTI have turned lower on easing geopolitical concerns and can extend the decline towards $59 and $55 in the near term. Gold remains steady and bullish, with scope to rise towards $4600–$4650. Silver needs a sustained move above $80 to regain momentum, else it can slip back to $76–$74. Copper is facing resistance near current levels and needs a clear break to move towards $6.10–$6.20, failing which a pullback to $5.80–$5.70 is possible. Natural gas remains bearish below $4 and can fall further towards $3.60–$3.40.