GBP/USD Forecast: Comfortable consolidation above 1.3000 continues

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

GBP/USD Current price: 1.3049

UK employment data mixed, unemployment rate steady, claimant count sharply up.
The preliminary estimate of the UK Q2 GDP is foreseen at -20.5% from -2.2% in Q1.
GBP/USD would gain bearish traction on a break below 1.2980.

The GBP/USD pair posted a modest intraday advance for a second consecutive day, although still trading within Friday’s range. The pair was supported by mixed UK employment data and a weakening dollar. According to the official figures, the kingdom’s ILO unemployment rate remained steady at 3.9% in the three months to June, better than the 4.2% expected. However, the Claimant Count Change for July disappointed by jumping to 94,400, far worse than the 10K projected. The pair peaked at 1.3131 right after the release, later retreating towards the current 1.3050 price zone.

This Wednesday, the UK will have quite a busy day, as it will publish several relevant reports, including the preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP, foreseen at -20.5% from -2.2% in Q1. The country will also publish June Industrial Production, foreseen at -12.8% YoY, and Manufacturing Production for the same month, anticipated at -15% from -22.8% previously.

GBP/USD short-term technical outlook

The GBP/USD pair is technically neutral according to intraday readings. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is hovering around a mildly bearish 20 SMA, while still below the larger ones. Technical indicators, in the meantime, lack directional strength around their midlines. The upcoming direction will mostly depend on the dollar’s behaviour, with increased chances of a bearish extension on a break below 1.2980.

Support levels: 1.3030 1.2980 1.2940

Resistance levels: 1.3105 1.3150 1.3190

View Live Chart for the GBP/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD drops to two-week low, further below 0.7000 after RBA's less hawkish rate hike

AUD/USD drifts lower for the second straight day on Tuesday, hitting a fresh two-week low during the Asian session after the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) widely expected 25 bps rate hike. The decision was far from unanimous, with three members preferring to hold rates at 4.60%. This tempers expectations of further tightening, which, along with modest US Dollar strength, weighs on the currency pair.

USD/JPY fails near 159.00 amid weak USD, intervention risks

USD/JPY edges lower during Tuesday’s Asian session, reversing part of the previous day's gains to 158.00 as the US Dollar remains depressed amid hopes for Iran diplomacy and ahead of US midterm elections. Meanwhile, intervention risks support the Japanese Yen, though the uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ rate hike caps gains. This keeps the pair confined within a familiar range and warrants caution before placing directional bets.

Gold slides below $3,900 as Fed hike bets counter softer USD ahead of US elections

Gold slides below the $3,900 mark during the first half of the European session, eyeing its lowest level since October 2025, set last week amid expectations of further tightening by the US Federal Reserve. Data released on Monday showed that US manufacturing sector business activity expanded for the 10th consecutive month in October. The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing PMI came in higher than consensus estimates and rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5 in the previous month.

Cardano extends losses as sellers stay in control

Cardano (ADA) extends correction, trading below $0.189 on Tuesday after losing key support zone the previous day. Mixed derivatives data and cautious on-chain metrics continue to weigh on bullish sentiment, while weakening technical indicators suggest further downside risks for ADA.

BoE is set to hike rates this week: Warns against 'unwarranted' aggressive tightening

We see a hike as a done deal this week and another, while not yet our baseline scenario, is possible in February should inflation stay above 4%, commodity prices remain high and activity remain resilient. We remain of the view, however, that aggressive tightening is unwarranted, for four main reasons: There are no clear signs of second-round inflation effects, nor do we think that there will be.

The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions

The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.