GBP/USD Forecast: Bercow's Brexit blow has more than one bright side, bulls are back


  • GBP/USD is trading at the highs of the range once again.
  • Speaker Bercow refusal for a repeat Brexit vote has its upside.
  • The technical picture remains positive for the pair.

GBP/USD is trading in the upper half of the 1.3200 handle, back to the highs. Cable crashed on Monday after a surprise intervention by House of Commons Speaker John Bercow. The ever-active Speaker stated that the UK government could not bring the exact same Brexit deal to a repeat vote in Parliament, throwing a spanner in the government's plans.

The plan was to have a third Meaningful Vote (dubbed MV3) before the EU Summit on Thursday. More and more Conservative lawmakers were warming up to supporting the government as the other option is now an extension of Brexit. 

Bercow threw a spanner in the wheels of these plans and sent the pound plunging. However, there is an upside to all this.

First, several procedures can allow the government to push through with a vote in any case. One is to end the current session of Parliament and start a new one, a procedure called "proroguing." This may take time, would require another Queen's Speech,  but could put the plans back on track.

However, there is a more natural solution. According to The Guardian newspaper, the EU and the UK may agree to postpone Brexit to late June or early July and then bring the accord to the House. This would constitute a material change that Bercow would be unable to block. Such a modification could occur at the EU Council.

Such a move would remove the risk of a no-deal Brexit on March 29th, which is only ten days away

Another route is the long extension, and this already has a higher upside. According to the Sun newspaper, PM Theresa May is already drafting an extension letter to the EU, asking for a delay of 9-12 months. Markets will be happy with a long pause. Anything that does not happen now may never happen.

The prospects of 9-12 months Article 50 extension may also convince Brexiteers to change their minds and vote for this agreement rather than risk losing Brexit altogether. 

Brexit developments have the upper hand in moving the pound. Bercow's block came out of the blue, and additional surprises cannot be ruled out in the Brexit saga.

Nevertheless, GBP/USD will likely move on the jobs report, at least for a short time. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at the low levels of 4% and wage growth to remain above 3%, and more importantly, way above inflation. The Bank of England convenes on Thursday and will eye the data. Yet also for the BOE, Brexit paralyzes everything. 

More: UK jobs report preview: GBP/USD reaction will be telling for Brexit-related developments

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP USD technical analysis March 19 2019

GBP/USD is trading well above the 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages on the four-hour chart. While Momentum has eased, it remains positive. The Relative Strength Index is rising.

The pound/dollar chart has become choppy, and there are quite a few spikes. These can be viewed as false moves, and we stick to the more substantive levels.

Immediate resistance awaits at 1.13300 that capped cable on Monday and also beforehand. 1.3350 was a peak in late February. The cycle high of 1.3388 is next.

Support awaits at 1.3200, that held the pair down in early March and provided support last week. 1.3110 was a separator of ranges in early March. 1.3070 provided support and also converges with the 200 SMA. 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD attracts some sellers below 0.6800 ahead of Chinese data

AUD/USD attracts some sellers below 0.6800 ahead of Chinese data

The AUD/USD pair trades on a weaker note around 0.6770, snapping the four-day winning streak during the early Asian session on Monday. The recovery of the US Dollar provides some support to the pair.

AUD/USD News

EUR/USD holds below 1.0900 as US political violence boosts US Dollar

EUR/USD holds below 1.0900 as US political violence boosts US Dollar

EUR/USD attracts some sellers around 1.0885 during the early Asian session on Monday. The major pair edges lower amid risk aversion, triggering a fresh bid of the US Dollar. The Eurozone May Industrial Production, July NY Empire State Manufacturing Index will be released on Monday, along with the Fed's Mary Daly speech. 

EUR/USD News

Gold edges lower near $2,400 on US Dollar rebounds

Gold edges lower near $2,400 on US Dollar rebounds

Gold price trades in negative territory near $2,405 on Monday during the early Asian session. The hotter-than-expected Wholesale price inflation in the United States for June weighs on the precious metal. 

Gold News

Shiba Inu erases losses from past week, eyes 18% gains

Shiba Inu erases losses from past week, eyes 18% gains

Shiba Inu traders are anticipating the roll-out of futures contracts, products like Exchange Traded Funds that could boost the asset’s utility. An IBC report shows the contract is expected to be listed post Monday, July 15.

Read more

Trump Assassination Attempt: Gold, stocks set to decline on Republican sweep speculation Premium

Trump Assassination Attempt: Gold, stocks set to decline on Republican sweep speculation

Fist in the air and on with the fight that has been the historic picture that former President Donald Trump shortly after he survived an assassination attempt on his life. Trump was injured in his ear but seems to have come out stronger politically from the shocking political violence. 

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures