GBP/USD Forecast: Bears are breaking the pound amid Brexit Anarchy

GBP/USD is trading below 1.3000 once again. The pair opened with a weekend gap to the downside, closed the gap, and is now back at the lows. It is all about Brexit, as usual.

Negotiations between the UK and the EU were not fruitful. On Friday, a "blame game" began. UK PM Theresa May asked the EU for one more push while Chief EU Negotiator Michel Barnier tweeted out concessions he made towards Britain. 

The original plan was to vote on a revised Brexit deal on Tuesday. In the likely case that Parliament rejects it, the House of Commons will vote on whether to leave without an agreement on the following day and then if to ask for an extension on Thursday.

However, without any new accord, rumors of a delay circled. At the time of writing, the PM is reportedly considering bringing a "provisional vote" to the chamber. It will include the current agreement and changes that the UK wants to the Irish Backstop. The hope is that she can muster enough support and come back to Brussels with leverage for the talks. However, there is no guarantee that this will stop the other votes and no guarantee it will pass at all.

Other rumors included an attempt to oust May out of office and a move to approve a second referendum.

The high level of uncertainty explains the choppy trading. Things could get more complicated with every hour that passes by.

Elsewhere, markets seem OK with the US Non-Farm Payrolls report. The jobs report showed an increase of only 20K jobs in February, far below expectations. On the other hand, high wage growth and a drop in unemployment countered the shortfall of the headline. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not seem concerned about the labor market in his 60 Minutes interview. Another top-tier number awaits traders today: the US retail sales are forecast to show a bounce in January and perhaps a revision for December's terrible numbers. 

See:  US Retail Sales Preview: The question of December

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

Momentum remains to the downside, and the recent fall sent cable below the 200 Simple Moving Average on the four-hour chart. A sliver of hope for Sterling bulls comes from the fact that the Relative Strength Index is flirting with oversold conditions, standing around the 30 levels.

The fresh low at 1.2960, which was also capped the pair in mid-February, is the first line to watch. 1.2940 held GBP/USD  down around the same time. It is followed by 1.2895 which provided support. 1.2830 was a swing low in mid-February and 1.2775 was the low point around that time.

Resistance awaits at 1.3020 that held the pair down today and also provided support in mid-February. 1.3060 cushioned cable late last week, just before the fall. The top line around that time was 1.3110. 1.3150 and 1.3190 follow.

More: GBP/USD may extend its falls as May struggles for political survival — Confluence Detector