GBP/USD analysis: improved UK retail sales not enough to save the Pound

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

GBP/USD Current price: 1.3386

UK Retail Sales bounced nicely in April after March's slump, but Pound's reaction limited.
UK Q1 GDP second estimate expected to confirm soft growth.

The Sterling Pound surged during European trading hours on the back of better-than-expected UK April Retail Sales, which surprised with a 1.6% monthly rise after falling by 1.1% in March. The yearly figure printed 1.4% vs. the expected 0.1%, while the core readings, excluding fuel prices, were also upbeat. The GBP/USD pair peaked at 1.3421 with the news, to later stabilize below the 1.3400 figure, as despite the greenback lost its charm post-FOMC's Minutes, the Sterling continues struggling to find buyers. There were some rumors at the beginning of the day suggesting that UK PM May would be seeking to extend the transition period for two more years, but they were later denied by governmental sources. The UK will release this Friday the second estimate of Q1 GDP, foreseen unchanged at 0.1%, which would be no good for the UK currency. In the meantime, the short-term picture remains unchanged, with the risk skewed to the downside, given that in the 4 hours chart, the price is unable to advance beyond its 20 SMA, now around 1.3400, while technical indicators hold within bearish territory, the Momentum heading south after failing to overcome its mid-line, and the RSI hovering below its daily high and currently at 45.

Support levels: 1.3365 1.3330 1.3300

Resistance levels: 1.3420 1.3455 1.3490

View Live Chart for the GBP/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.